\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 33 Sonoscape Medical Corp(300633) )
Key investment points
A hundred feet, ultrasound + endoscopy set sail again Sonoscape Medical Corp(300633) 20 years focus on independent research and development of core technologies, and ultrasound + endoscopy leads the technological innovation. There is no doubt about the brand influence of the company today. In the past three years, the company has continued to come out of the painful period. With the recovery of military hospital procurement, the release of the effectiveness of marketing channel reform, the clearing of the risk of goodwill reduction of subsidiaries and the gradual mitigation of the epidemic, the company's revenue and performance have accelerated to an upward turning point. The strategic level is becoming more and more clear. The color Doppler ultrasound has upgraded from the medium and low-end to the high-end. The depth and breadth of the endoscope product line have developed together. The marketing channel has changed from independent sales to the core agent orientation suitable for the new stage, and has developed from a good student of "technology" to an all-round player of technology + sales. With an average annual income of about 20% invested in R & D, it is far ahead of its Chinese counterparts. It has made continuous progress. It is optimistic that the company's high-end product upgrading + channel reform and accurate coverage will set sail again.
The adverse factors gradually subside, and the performance is expected to rebound after the painful period. 1) Overseas products and marketing continue to be optimized, and overseas sales are expected to accelerate the recovery. From the leading of cost-effective products in the early stage to the latecomer high-end categories such as S60, P60, Hd-500 and hd-550 with international competitiveness, the company's overseas sales categories have been gradually upgraded. At the same time, overseas subsidiaries and after-sales branches have been continuously added overseas. With the upgrading of overseas products and the expansion of overseas channels, overseas sales are expected to recover rapidly after the epidemic. 2) Since January 2022, the procurement of military hospitals has resumed, and the effectiveness of China's marketing reform has begun to show. Channel side: the number of core agents has increased by more than 70%, and the effectiveness of the marketing structure reform of "distribution channel" started in 2019 has been continuously released. Product side: the high-end category market and brand promotion have been effective. The sales proportion of high-end color Doppler ultrasound and endoscopy in tertiary hospitals has gradually increased. In 2019, the sales of S60 in tertiary hospitals increased to more than 40%. 3) The business integration of consumables is getting better, and the synergy is expected to increase. In 2020, after Wilson's performance failed to meet the commitment to withdraw the goodwill impairment of 200 million again, the impairment risk was gradually cleared. With the full takeover of the company, it is optimistic that the collaborative sales of endoscopic equipment + endoscopic consumables will accelerate onto the right track.
Independent innovation of domestic endoscope dark horse, and high-end soft mirror has entered the mass production period. China's soft mirror market has entered a high boom track. The market scale is about 5.34 billion yuan in 2019 and is expected to reach 8.12 billion yuan in 25 years. At present, 90% of China's soft mirrors are monopolized by the three giants of Japan. China's supply chain is improved + domestic manufacturers' technology knowhow breakthrough + channels are gradually deepened, and domestic soft mirrors usher in a high-speed period of import substitution. Hd-550 launched by the company in 2018 is competitive. With its industry-leading optoelectronic composite dyeing imaging (vist) technology and poly spectral imaging (SFI) technology, multi spectral LED cold light source technology and good mirror gymnastics control, the company has opened a good reputation in the hospital. In 2020, the installation of hd-550 series endoscopes has increased significantly, and the sales revenue accounts for more than 50% of the overall revenue of endoscopes. With the advantage of high cost performance, it has driven the rapid growth of CAGR of 131% of endoscopy revenue in seven years, Recently, hd-550 has been certified by FDA, and overseas sales are expected to accelerate. At the same time, the company continued to research and develop in the field of overweight endoscopy, focusing on the layout of high-end mirror types or new functions such as duodenoscopy, fine mirror, optical amplification, ultrasonic endoscopy and 4K hard mirror. The integration and innovation of ultrasound + endoscopy, the accelerated molding of multi product matrix, the opening of product coverage, and the continuous improvement of the brand influence of departments, hospitals and channels. Product + sales + academic promotion. We judge that the endoscopy business of the company is expected to achieve a large-scale growth of 40-50% in the next three years.
Domestic color ultrasound head players, high-end platform evolution can be expected. In recent years, with the rectification of private hospitals and the control of medical insurance fees, China's ultrasound market has developed to a low growth stage. However, at the hierarchical level, the market scale of high-end products is the largest, accounting for about 59% of the overall ultrasonic market in 2025. The localization of low-end color Doppler ultrasound has been basically completed, and 90% of the high-end market is still monopolized by imports. The company's domestic ultrasound share is the top two, which is the head player to impact the substitution of high-end imports. It has consolidated the competitive barriers with more than 60 kinds of probes and core probe technologies. It has achieved independent breakthroughs or even leadership in key technologies such as single crystal probe, beam synthesis and imaging, and continued to expand the growth space of high-end color Doppler ultrasound. In 2016, the company began to enter the high-end color Doppler ultrasound and launched the medium and high-end color Doppler ultrasound S50 series, which was widely recognized by the market. In 2018, the sales of S50 accounted for 25%. At the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019, S60 and P60 were launched successively, and the hospital clinical recognition was gradually improved. In 2019, the sales of S60 in tertiary hospitals increased to more than 40%. The high-end color Doppler ultrasound series are in array. The next ultrasound platform and intravascular ultrasound are expected to obtain the certificate in China by the end of 2022, superimposing the rapid marketing channels outside China. After the epidemic, P60 / S60 and other high-end color Doppler ultrasound are expected to drive the color Doppler ultrasound revenue to a rapid turning point upward.
Investment suggestion and Valuation: the unfavorable factors outside China are gradually fading, the company's ultrasound + endoscopy leads the technological innovation, the high-end product matrix continues to improve the brand power, the new results of channel reform enable the acceleration of large-scale products. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 213 / 278 / 375 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 559.4% / 30.9% / 34.8%, and the corresponding PE will be 56x / 43x / 32x respectively. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the growth of ultrasound business is less than expected; Endoscopy sales were lower than expected; Channel reform is less than expected; The merger and integration of consumables is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks have led to a less than expected recovery in hospital sales.
