\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 256 Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) )
Core view:
The event company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, it realized an operating revenue of 24.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 274.40%; The basic earnings per share is 0.77 yuan. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 9.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 175.67%; The basic earnings per share is 0.34 yuan.
The volume and price of main products rose simultaneously, helping the company achieve a new high performance in 2021. In terms of price, the prices of natural gas, coal, methanol and other products in China reached a phased record high in 2021; The selling price of the company's coal to LNG increased by 63.62%; The average selling price of coal increased by 23.17%; The market price of methanol increased by 63.66%. In terms of volume, the company achieved a sales volume of 456622 million m3 of natural gas, with a year-on-year increase of 22.28%, including 367519 million m3 of trading LNG (a total of 2.51 million tons), with a year-on-year increase of 30.66%; The sales volume of coal reached 1995 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 91.19%, of which the sales volume of raw coal and upgraded coal increased by 121.13% and 35.29% respectively year-on-year; The sales volume of methanol, coal based oil products and coal chemical by-products increased by 9.25%, 14.72% and 5.50% respectively year-on-year.
22q1 continued the price rise trend in 2021, and the company continued to maintain high profits. 22q1's natural gas sales increased by 9.53% year-on-year, coal sales increased by 29.69% year-on-year, and coal chemical products sales increased by 5.58% year-on-year. In terms of market price performance, stimulated by the complex international situation and other factors, 22q1 natural gas, coal and methanol continue to show an upward trend. The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter continues to maintain a historical high of more than 2 billion. It is expected that the company will have a good profit performance in the whole year under the background of high gas and coal prices.
The company's coal mine capacity and LNG terminal turnover capacity are expected to continue to increase, supporting the sustainable development of the company. The company has rich coal resources in Xinjiang, which can achieve self-sufficiency in production and external sales. Baishihu coal mine of the company has obtained the new guaranteed supply capacity of the national development and Reform Commission, and has a production capacity of more than 20 million tons / year; Malang coal mine has a planned production capacity of 15 million tons / year, and the preliminary procedures are being stepped up. It is expected to gradually reach the production capacity from 2023 to 2025. Qidong LNG terminal and supporting construction projects are advancing in an orderly manner. At present, the turnover capacity is 3 million tons / year. With the completion and operation of 5 tanks, 6 tanks and 7 tanks, the company's LNG turnover capacity will reach 10 million tons / year. At present, the 400000 T / a ethylene glycol project of comprehensive utilization of raw gas has produced qualified ethylene glycol, and a single series load increase is under way, which is expected to gradually contribute to the performance.
According to the investment proposal, the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is expected to be 49.4 billion yuan, 69.0 billion yuan and 70.5 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 98.8%, 39.6% and 2.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.42 billion yuan, 10.46 billion yuan and 11.57 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 68.4%, 24.2% and 10.6%; EPS is 1.28, 1.59 and 1.76 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 7.41, 5.96 and 5.39 times respectively.
The risk indicates the risk that the downstream demand is less than expected, the risk of falling coal and gas prices, and the risk that the output of new projects is less than expected.
