\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 612 Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) )
Event: the company announced its 2021 annual report after hours on April 14, realizing a revenue of 9.458 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 189.6%; Net profit attributable to non recurring shareholders was 18.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.35%. It is proposed to pay 4.7 yuan for every 10 shares.
Comments:
The performance exceeded the forecast ceiling, and roe reached a new high since 2018. In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 146 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year exceeded the original forecast of 560600 million yuan. The annual sales volume of prebaked anode was 2.025 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5%; The gross profit margin of prebaked anode was 18.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.59 percentage points, mainly because the price increase of prebaked anode was greater than that of petroleum coke and other raw materials. Roe (diluted) was 13.74%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.89 percentage points, a new high since 2018.
The volume and price rise together, and the performance is expected to continue to grow high in 2022. On the evening of March 28, the company announced that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 was 140150 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28% – 37%, mainly due to the increase of sales volume and product price. 1) Volume: at present, the company’s operating capacity is 2.52 million tons / year, and sotong Yunnan Aluminum phase I project with an annual output of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons has been put into operation in December 2021; 2) Price: as of April 14, the average price of prebaked anode in China was 7379 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 72%, an increase of 41% over the beginning of 2022. It is expected that the performance will maintain high-speed growth in 2022. Petroleum coke has significant advantages in purchasing, and it cuts into the cathode of lithium battery. On April 8, the company announced that it plans to invest in the first phase of the 50000 ton project of the 200000 ton / year lithium ion battery cathode material integration project in Jiayuguan City (50000 ton / year lithium ion battery cathode material graphitization furnace and supporting public and auxiliary facilities project), which will cut into the lithium battery cathode. The company is one of the largest purchasers of petroleum coke. It has established stable cooperative relations with Sinopec, PetroChina and other upstream suppliers at home and abroad. It is also involved in petroleum coke trade to stabilize channel supply. The cost advantage is expected to continue to lithium battery cathode.
Formulate the C + (carbon) strategy and form the layout of “double drive and two wings, low-carbon intelligent manufacturing”. The company will take prebaked anode (with a target production capacity of 5 million tons / year in 2025) and petroleum coke (global supply system) as the dual drive, and form “electrolytic cell comprehensive and service scheme” and a new carbon material production platform as the two wings. Namely: 1) relying on the advantages of prebaked anode, it is developing to the “comprehensive service solution for carbon reduction and energy saving of electrolytic cell” in the mode of “multi product + service”; 2) Using green new energy such as photovoltaic, wind energy and hydrogen energy as the cornerstone, build a new carbon material production platform represented by lithium battery cathode, special carbon, carbon ceramic and silicon carbide.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s pre baked anode capacity has expanded steadily. Relying on the advantages of high-quality products and low cost, the profit is expected to break away from cyclical fluctuations and achieve stable growth. Excluding the contribution of new business performance, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be RMB 780 / 930 million respectively (compared with the previous adjustment of + 1% / – 1%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is expected to be RMB 1.11 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 25.5% / 19.7% / 19.6%. The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 12 / 10 / 9x respectively, maintaining the rating of “increased holding”.
Risk warning: the capacity investment and construction is not as expected; Risk of substantial fluctuations in raw material prices; Risk of inert anode substitution.
