Key points:
Many factors led to the correction of the new energy vehicle sector. The hot sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China can still be expected to stabilize and rebound in February after the Spring Festival. However, in early March, the international situation suddenly changed, and the new energy vehicle sector fell again following the market. At the current time point, the market lacks confidence in the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the middle of 2022 due to variables such as (1) declining subsidies, (2) rising prices of new energy vehicles, and (3) unstable supply chain. Now, the repeated epidemic in China has caused great disturbance to the production and marketing of new energy vehicles. We always believe that the Chinese market has a wide range of new energy vehicle models, many products are attractive, strong demand and support, and the hot sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles can still be expected.
The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is high, but the performance of listed companies has increased rapidly, and the overestimated value can be digested. As of March 31, 2022, the Wande new energy vehicle index has increased by 28.1% in the past year. However, the valuation (PE, TTM) has decreased by 24.0% to 51.1 times, and the valuation has decreased significantly, mainly due to the company’s profitability. At the current time point, with the intensive release of 2021 annual report / 2022 first quarter report of relevant listed companies, the high performance growth can be realized, and the valuation of new energy vehicles is expected to further explore.
Rising prices of new energy vehicles
In mid March, Tesla raised the quotation in the Chinese market three times on the 10th, 15th and 17th respectively, and the prices of some models increased many times; On the evening of the 15th, Byd Company Limited(002594) followed up the price increase and announced an increase of 3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0 yuan in the official guidance price of its Dynasty Series and Ocean series new energy vehicle models; Subsequently, many auto companies announced price increases for their new energy vehicle models, including Xiaopeng automobile, which announced a price increase of 1010020000 yuan on the 18th, Nezha automobile, which announced a price increase of Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan on the 18th, ideal automobile, which announced a price increase of 11800 yuan on the 23rd, and Zero run automobile, which announced a price increase twice on the 18th and 25th.
As an industry benchmark, Tesla has a great impact on the pricing strategy of its peers and led the current round of price rise. Under the background of the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, major car companies generally follow the price rise.
China’s epidemic repeatedly disturbs bullet train cities
Affected by the epidemic, the 3 / 28 Tesla Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) factory was shut down, and the recovery time was to be determined. At present, the delivery cycle of model 3 is as long as 20-24 weeks. In addition, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , FAW Group (Jilin Changchun factory) and other auto enterprises are also at the core of the storm. Shanghai is also an important gathering place for the production of auto parts, including international suppliers such as Bosch, ZF and anbofu. As a result, the epidemic affected the whole auto supply chain. 4 / 9 Weilai automobile also announced the suspension of vehicle production because of the interruption of the supply chain.
Investment advice
With the realization of high performance growth, the situation of overestimation of new energy vehicle sector has eased, so it is recommended to pay attention. In each segment, the lithium industry benefits from the soaring price of lithium under the contradiction between supply and demand, and the performance flexibility of relevant listed companies is very large; China lithium battery materials Co., Ltd. is very important and difficult to replace in the global new energy vehicle supply chain. It can enjoy the high growth of new energy vehicle market outside China, and with the in-depth interpretation of the market, the market is digging deeper and deeper; Traditional automobile enterprises are value valleys. Over the years, the market has almost ignored traditional fuel automobile enterprises and actively transformed new energy vehicles. In the long run, there are opportunities for value revaluation. Maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
The new energy vehicle industry is greatly affected by the policy and the boom fluctuates violently; Industry competition intensifies. Repeated outbreaks in China
