Key points:
Medical services II fell 4.00% last week, leading the decline
Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 966597 points, down 3.33%, ranking the 24th in Shenwan industry, ranking lower. The CSI 300 fell by 1.06%, and the pharmaceutical industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.27%; Medical service II closed at 955185 points, down 4.00%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 756492, down 2.02%; Chemical pharmaceutical closed at 1054769 points, down 4.53%; Biological products II closed at 1040495 points, down 1.06%; Pharmaceutical Business II closed at 587181 points, down 6.54%; Medical device II closed at 837576 points, down 2.99%.
PE (TTM) of medical services decreased by 2.09 x month on month, and Pb (LF) decreased by 0.29 x month on month
At present, the PE of medical service sector is 50.69 x, the maximum value of PE in recent year is 117.34 x, and the minimum value is 50.08 X; At present, Pb is 6.88 x, the maximum value of Pb in recent year is 13.71 x, and the minimum value is 6.43 X. PE in the medical service sector decreased by 2.09 x month on month, Pb decreased by 0.29 x month on month, and PE and Pb in the medical service sector were at the bottom level in recent one year. The premium rate of the medical service sector relative to the CSI 300 valuation was 274.79%. Although the valuation of the medical service sector is still high statically, considering the high performance growth of specialized hospitals and CXO industry related companies, the good development trend of the industry and policy immunity, the current valuation is more reasonable.
Important information
Beijing issued a document to deepen the reform of the centralized procurement system of drugs and medical consumables
On April 12, the Beijing Municipal People's government issued several measures on deepening the reform of the medical security system, which mentioned deepening the reform of the centralized procurement system of drugs and medical consumables. Steadily implement centralized procurement of drugs and medical consumables. Promote the procurement of drugs and medical consumables by the Beijing Tianjin Hebei regional alliance, gradually form a cross provincial regional procurement alliance, and explore the formation of a "national regional alliance provincial (municipal)" three-level procurement system. Continue to expand the scope of centralized procurement of high-value medical consumables. Strengthen the construction of centralized procurement platform for drugs and medical consumables in the city, and optimize the bidding, procurement, trading and supervision functions of the existing platform. Improve the coding system of drugs and medical consumables, strengthen data docking, and realize medical security data sharing and business collaboration in the city. Implement the credit evaluation system for pharmaceutical prices and bidding and procurement.
This week's view
Since March, the new round of epidemic brought by Omicron variant is the strongest repetition since 2020, and the epidemic prevention and control measures across the country have been continuously upgraded. From the experience of previous epidemics, there is often a recovery of offline consumption after the epidemic. According to the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission, 22348 cases of asymptomatic infection were added from 0 to 24 o'clock on April 11. This means that the number of asymptomatic infections in Shanghai has decreased for the first time since April. Although it needs to continue to observe whether the epidemic has an inflection point, a large-scale nucleic acid detection and screening has covered all residents in Shanghai and has been reviewed repeatedly and repeatedly. Under this background, this figure is true and credible. It can be said that the epidemic in Shanghai is in the darkness before dawn. We believe that under the background that the epidemic is expected to be gradually controlled and usher in an inflection point, the medical services and consumer medicine related to the epidemic recovery have entered the configuration window period, which deserves special attention. From the perspective of valuation, the overall pressure on the medical service sector in the past year is great. The valuation of most companies has dropped significantly compared with the previous period, and most companies have been cost-effective. We suggest investors pay attention to the layout opportunities brought by the adjustment of sectors with Chinese advantages. Recently, the annual reports of Listed Companies in the medical service industry have been released one after another. In terms of performance, the performance of CXO related companies is still beautiful. It can be seen that the prosperity of the industry is still growing and the sustainability is good. In particular, the revenue of leading companies continues to show a high growth trend in 2021. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading CXO companies with high growth. In terms of industrial layout, we maintain the "overweight" rating of the medical service industry, and suggest that investors continue to pay attention to the layout opportunities brought by the adjustment of sectors with Chinese advantages, and adhere to the stock selection ideas of "policy immunization" and "innovation". Suggestions: (1) innovative drug seller "CXO" industrial chain company. (2) Private specialized medical service leading company. (3) Third party medical laboratory leading company.
Risk tips
(1) uncertainty of policy changes; (2) The R & D investment of innovative drugs is less than expected; (3) Risk that the performance of the industry and listed companies is lower than expected.
