Core view
Market review this week. In the 14th week, the real estate sector index was stronger than the CSI 300 index and the gem index. The relative return of the real estate sector compared with the CSI 300 index was + 2.7%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen index closed at – 421.1% on a weekly basis; The gem index closed at 256991, with a weekly increase of – 3.6%; The real estate sector index closed at 379588, with a weekly increase of + 1.6%.
Industry highlights this week. 17 departments issued documents to carry out the pilot construction of youth development oriented cities. National Standing Committee: deploy the timely use of monetary policy tools to optimize affordable housing financial services. Lanzhou relaxed the purchase, loan and sale restrictions and reduced the proportion of down payment. Chongqing banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau: reasonably determine the mortgage standard of the first house of the people in the new city. Hangzhou plans to provide 4816 hectares of land in 2022. Chongqing pre supplies 27 parcels of land in the main urban area China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) signed strategic cooperation agreements with great wall assets and jiazhaoye.
Sales of new and second-hand houses this week were significantly lower than last week. In the 14th week, the sales of new houses in 29 major cities was 18000, down 34.6% from the 13th week; The sales of second-hand houses in 11 major cities were 6000 units, down 28.5% from the 13th week; Compared with the 13th week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in first tier cities were – 25.6% and – 26.8% respectively; Compared with the 13th week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in second tier cities were – 48.5% and – 36.8% respectively. The inventory is basically the same as that of last week, and the inventory and sales are higher than that of last week. In the 14th week, the inventory of 15 major cities was 1222000 sets, an increase of 10000 sets compared with the 13th week; The stock to sales ratio was 18.5 months, an increase of 1.4 months over the 13th week. The amount of land transfer decreased. In the 14th week, the land transfer fee in 26 major cities was 580 million yuan, a decrease of 39.49 billion yuan compared with the 13th week. The average premium rate decreased. In the 14th week, the average premium rate of land transactions in 26 major cities was 0.0%, 3.0% lower than that in the 13th week.
Announcement of key companies. A number of real estate enterprises announced sales in the first quarter: Vanke 106.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.9%; Poly 90.7 billion yuan, down 27.0%; Rongchuang reached 72.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.8%; China Shipping 48.28 billion yuan, down 46.0% year-on-year China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) 47.34 billion yuan, down 34.5% year on year; Jindi 45.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.7%; Jinmao 31.66 billion yuan, down 49.6% Oceanwide Holdings Co.Ltd(000046) for 12 consecutive months, the accumulated litigation amount accounts for 10.42% of its audited net assets. Tan Wei, vice president of shenzhenye, resigned and no longer held any position.
Investment proposal and investment object
Following a brief rebound last week, sales of new and second-hand houses weakened in an all-round way this week, and the bottom building of fundamentals continued. Market expectations for the introduction of greater easing policies in April continued to rise. Combined with the spirit of the gold stability meeting on March 16 and the subsequent communication meeting of various departments, we believe that the consensus reached by supervision includes two aspects: first, promote financial institutions to reduce liquidity runs on low rated real estate enterprises; Second, promote the M & A of real estate projects, encourage high-quality real estate enterprises to acquire high-quality projects of problematic real estate enterprises, compact the responsibility of actual controllers, improve their willingness to pay debts, and encourage high-quality enterprises to participate in M & A, so as to resolve debt risks, rather than entirely through demand stimulation. Based on this decision logic, the policy will eventually show an average force at both ends: the supply side will promote the problem real estate enterprises to sell the projects at a significant discount, and the state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises will take over the projects; On the demand side, some cities with little upward pressure on house prices can further relax regulation. The final result is that the owner’s equity of the problem real estate enterprises has been lost, the creditors have suffered a certain degree of loss on average (but the creditors have the order of priority and inferiority), and the resident Department has slowly increased a certain leverage (with a moderate interest rate cut to alleviate the pressure of residents’ principal and interest expenditure). Recently, the market has deduced three logics: the repair of Vanke’s valuation, the rise of real estate of local state-owned enterprises, credit default and the reversal of the plight of private enterprises. We believe that Vanke does have room for valuation repair, and local state-owned real estate enterprises also benefit from the current competition pattern as a whole; However, under the framework of promoting risk resolution through M & A, problematic real estate enterprises will lose capital on a large scale and completely lose the ability to increase leverage in the future. We recommend the balanced allocation of the first-line leaders and some high rated flexible targets, favor the first-line leaders with stable performance, and recommend Vanke A ( China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , buy) and Poly Real Estate ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , buy); Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) ( Gemdale Corporation(600383) , buy) and Longhu group (00960, buy). At the same time, we are optimistic about the property management and business management industry with rapid growth and less credit damage. We recommend Country Garden Service (06098, buy), poly property (06049, buy), China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) ( China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , overweight), New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) ( New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , buy), rongchuang service (01516, buy), Xingsheng Commerce (06668, buy).
Risk tips
Sales were significantly lower than expected. The counter cyclical policy was less than expected. Interest rates have risen significantly.
