Key investment points:
The central bank released the financial statistics report for March. At the end of March, the balance of RMB loans reached 201.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, the growth rate was the same as that at the end of last month, 1.2pct lower than that in the same period of last year, The downward trend of growth rate eased. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year and 1900 billion yuan month on month. The balance of RMB deposits was 243.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 10% year-on-year, 0.2pct higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year And 0.1pct. In March, RMB deposits increased by 4.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 857.7 billion yuan year-on-year.
The volume of new loans increased, and the structure needs to be improved. In terms of installment limit, the amount of short-term loans and bill financing increased month on month and decreased year on year. In terms of loan subjects, household loans increased by 753.9 billion yuan in March, 394 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and 1090.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The repeated epidemic has weakened the driving force of household consumption and insufficient loan demand; Real estate sales are sluggish, residents’ willingness to buy houses is not strong, and the growth of residents’ medium and long-term loans is under pressure. Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 2480 billion yuan in March, doubling month on month and 880 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, new short-term loans recorded 808.9 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased 1344.8 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8 billion yuan year-on-year, and became regular again after January. The overall short-term loan impulse at the enterprise end is characterized by significant increase in medium and long-term loans but insufficient sustainability. The credit demand is still in the recovery stage, and may continue to grow as the demand recovers in succession. Non bank institutional loans increased by – 45.4 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4 billion yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 224.4 billion yuan month on month. In March, the deposit loan gap was 42.09 trillion yuan, and the deposit loan ratio continued to decline to 82.69%.
Investment suggestion: the financial data in the first quarter showed that the scale of deposits and loans increased in large quantities, and the loan growth was generally in line with the previous expectations. It is expected that the loan scale can grow steadily throughout the year. China has a clear goal of steady growth. It will expand credit and stabilize loan growth. The banking industry will adjust credit policies, increase credit supply, or supplement the price with quantity in the downward trend of interest margin. The space for performance growth is relatively stable. It is suggested to focus on banks with comprehensive business layout, stable asset quality and stronger bargaining power, which can better benefit from steady economic growth: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) . Maintain the rating of “synchronous market” in the industry.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; Policy regulation exceeded expectations; Asset quality declined.
