Key investment points:
Big home: the margin of real estate has warmed up, the main line of valuation repair continues, and the leader is expected to counter the trend and increase the market share. Since the beginning of this year, nearly 60 cities across the country have relaxed the real estate policies, including reducing the down payment ratio, reducing the mortgage interest rate, raising the provident fund loan amount or relaxing the provident fund loan conditions, opening the settlement conditions and many other measures, and the margin of real estate has warmed up. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the completed investment in real estate development from January to February totaled 1449938 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.70%. In March, the transaction areas of commercial houses in the top 10 and 30 large and medium-sized cities were 5.4101 million square meters and 9.6989 million square meters respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 0.48% and 0.47%. From January to February of 22, the completed area of residential houses totaled 89.15 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. From January to February, the newly started area of residential houses totaled 108.36 million square meters, A year-on-year decrease of – 14.9%. The 2022 government work report proposes to adhere to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market, promote the construction of indemnificatory housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the benign cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies. Under the guidance of the policy of “implementing policies for the city”, many places have issued the policy of “stabilizing the property market”, reducing the proportion of the first set of down payment, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, weakening the demand side restrictions, and regional regulation is expected to improve the overall Fundamentals of real estate from bottom to top. From January to March, social finance accumulated 12.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year. The real estate financing side has gradually improved. With the recovery of the prosperity of the real estate sector, In the post real estate cycle, the liquidity of the household sector is expected to continue to improve, leading enterprises will take the lead in benefiting, and it is expected to continue to expand market share by virtue of brand and channel advantages.
It is suggested to pay attention to the customization leader Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , which has obvious advantages in multi-channel strategy and multi categories, and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , which promotes the whole packaging strategy and creates the second growth curve (in 21 years, the company realized an operating revenue of 10.407 billion yuan, an increase of 24.59% year-on-year; realized a net profit attributable to the parent of 123 million yuan, a decrease of 89.72% year-on-year; deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent of 32 million yuan, a decrease of – 96.98% year-on-year), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) , which introduces Internet strategic investors and the forward-looking layout of the packaged business, and Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , which has prominent bulk advantages and enjoys category and channel dividends (according to the 21-year performance express, the company achieved a revenue of 5.153 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 34.17%, including an operating profit of 552 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.50%) Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) (in 21 years, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.448 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.61%; realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 338 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.49%; deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 263 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.79%) Recommend the introduction of war investment empowering Ekornes growth, the “three new” marketing reform to promote retail growth, the gradual release of Evergrande’s receivables risk, and the continuous optimization of financial costs Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) etc. The software sector recommends Minhua holdings, a software leader with continuous rise in domestic and foreign sales and expansion in the number of stores. It is suggested to focus on the layout of the whole house customization, the acceleration of channel sinking, the gradual release of production capacity, the integration of categories and the improvement of store efficiency Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ; Recommend Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , which is jointly promoted by Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) and continuously increased the proportion of independent brands, and set up a high equity incentive plan with a compound growth rate of 40% of net profit in 22-24 years; Recommend vertical integration within the supply chain and deeply bind Hhc Changzhou Corp(301061) . It is suggested to focus on the Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) , which is driven by the rapid growth of product revenue and the continuous development of overseas e-commerce Amazon + independent station. The wooden door department suggests paying attention to Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) , which has a continuous and large-scale project and orderly production capacity, the hardware ceramic tile department is optimistic about Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , which is optimistic about the expansion of categories, farming channels and the continuous realization of dividends, and the Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) with high-end product structure, national production capacity layout and multi-channel development. The electrician lighting sector suggests paying attention to Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) (in 21 years, the company realized an operating revenue of 12.385 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.22%; realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.18%; deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 2.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.48%); It is suggested to pay attention to the Opple Lighting Co.Ltd(603515) , where online business licenses maintain steady growth, multi-channel layout and gradually increase the market share.
FMCG: with the rise of national tide and personal protection, e-commerce promotion demand is large. In February 22, the retail sales of cultural office supplies totaled 58.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and the demand side has warmed up. However, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in many places recently, the growth rate of the demand side may slow down. It is suggested to pay attention to the Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) , which has strong traditional barriers, large volume of klip and steady expansion of Jiumu stores. We believe that the marginal impact of double reduction is decreasing, and the strong alpha of the company is prominent. The company has achieved a revenue of 17.607 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 34.02%, including an operating profit of 1.783 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.55%; Wood pulp industry fell, gross profit gradually restored C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) ; Recommend the all cotton life leader Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) , which is driven by two wheels of consumer medicine and has obvious advantages in all channels; Recommend the implementation of the incentive plan, deeply bind the management, highlight the long-term development confidence in the performance evaluation objectives, and expand the channels steadily Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) .
New type of tobacco: the new type of tobacco regulatory policy has been implemented, and attention has been paid to the value of the layout of the new type of tobacco industry chain The Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) new tobacco industry chain layout is further increased, extending from horizontal to low temperature in the field of tobacco, extending vertically to the essence, and enhancing the synergy effect of the whole industry. According to the annual performance express of Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 5.085 billion yuan, an increase of 21.32% over the same period of last year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 100600 yuan, an increase of 22.12% over the same period last year. The company’s new-type tobacco continued to expand, making breakthroughs in industrial chain extension, customer expansion and capacity construction, and its revenue increased by 381.16% year-on-year. In terms of cigarette labels, driven by the winning business of key customers in 22 years, the revenue of cigarette labels is expected to rise; In terms of color boxes, under the upgrading trend of medium and high-end tobacco and alcohol packaging and 3C product packaging, the company continued to promote the high-end business strategy of products, and the revenue increased by 23.52% year-on-year. Philip Morris International (PMI) achieved a revenue of US $31.41 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, including an operating profit of US $12.98 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. The global cigarette market grew steadily. The company built the second growth curve with HNB products. SIMORE released its annual report for 21 years, and achieved an operating revenue of 13.755 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 37.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.3%.
China’s policy: on March 11, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes. Compared with the version issued on December 2, 2001, the new standard is modified in the following aspects: 1) delete “enterprises that produce e-cigarettes not sold in China and only used for export shall register their products in accordance with the provisions of these measures and obtain the license of tobacco monopoly production enterprises”, and the registration and licensing system for export is slightly relaxed, It is good for Chinese made brands to go to sea. 2) The number of permitted substances for atomizing additives has been reduced from 122 to 101. Flavoring agents such as plum extract have been deleted, and “the characteristic flavor of the product shall not show other flavors except tobacco” has been added. The taste of tobacco is limited, and the expression of tobacco taste is expected to become the final point. 3) The trading objects of the trading management platform are changed from “e-cigarette wholesale enterprises, retail enterprises and individuals” to “e-cigarette retail business entities”. The sales channels are expected to be unified into tobacco stores, and the retail outlets will increase or expand the sales channels. Overseas policy: on October 13, 2001, two cigarette oils and one cigarette set of British American Tobacco vusesolo series became the first electronic cigarette product to pass the PMTA in the United States, and the market expectation is optimistic. We believe that the new type of tobacco is still a long-term high-quality track. The penetration rate of e-cigarettes in the United States has been more than 50%, while that in China is only 1% ~ 2%. There is huge room for the scale of e-cigarette market in the future. E-cigarette brands continue to expand globally. In the long run, the trend of e-cigarette is unstoppable. It is recommended that smore international, which has advanced ceramic atomization technology, increased global share, orderly production capacity, special supply advantages for large customers and led in the comprehensive competitiveness of products, should pay attention to the layout of new tobacco, undervalued Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) and so on.
Papermaking: the pulp price fluctuated upward, and the leading profit in the traditional peak season improved. As of April 8, the prices of white cardboard, double copper paper, double offset paper, box board paper and corrugated paper were 6385, 5680, 6237.5, 4859 and 380625 yuan / ton, with a change of 0%, 0%, 0.2%, 0.54% and 0.5% on a weekly basis. Wood pulp system: in terms of cultural paper, the high pulp price cost promotes the rise of cultural paper price, and the downstream dealers follow up obviously. In the short term, benefiting from the peak bidding season of teaching and auxiliary materials, the printing plant resumes operation, the demand is supported, and the export demand of superimposed white cardboard is stable, and the paper price will be maintained. White cardboard: the price of white cardboard has risen recently. On the one hand, due to the rise of pulp price, on the other hand, due to the epidemic, the production capacity of overseas paper mills has decreased, the export demand is stable, and the overall production and sales of white cardboard have remained stable. Waste paper system: the start-up of paper mills is gradually restored, the willingness to purchase waste paper is improved, and some paper mills intend to increase inventory reserves. Due to the limited new capacity of waste paper, the cost support is relatively strong. After periodic adjustment and stock removal in the downstream base paper market, there is room for improvement in the operating rate of some downstream base paper, and the demand for pulp collection may return to temperature slowly, supporting the mentality of the pulp market. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading paper enterprise Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ; Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) and Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , which have the double barriers of production end and client, will continue to put in production capacity in the future and layout the high-quality subdivision track of food packaging paper.
Packaging: the pulp market continues to be strong, and the packaging paper rises locally. In the metal packaging sector, the canning rate of beer has gradually increased, the upgrading of high-end packaging is obvious, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to improve, driving the significant increase of capacity utilization. It is suggested to pay attention to Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) and so on; In the paper packaging sector, with the rise of pulp price in early 22, the price of packaging paper raw materials rose, and the price increase strategy was effectively implemented. It is suggested to pay attention to Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) , which benefited from the 5g machine change trend and the continuous growth of consumer electronics. Composite plastic temsector block, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality structure of downstream customers and Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) , which is deeply bound with Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) and other cheese growth tracks.
Risk tip: real estate regulation tightened; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The epidemic situation has been repeated outside China.
