Core view
In 22, Baijiu production increased in 1 and February, and the terminal price of famous liquor increased steadily. Total Baijiu production in 2022 and February increased by 126.6 kW in February and 5.4%. Jingdong’s best Baijiu liquor price in 22 years March 25th compared to 22 February 25th price: Jingdong 52 degrees Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) maintained 1389 yuan / bottle unchanged; 52 degrees Jiannanchun increased by 21 yuan to 489 yuan / bottle; 52 degrees Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) increased by 10 yuan to 595 yuan / bottle.
Beer production continued to rise year-on-year, and the average price of imported wine rose year-on-year. In January and February 2022, the cumulative beer output of the beer industry was 5.309 million kiloliters, with a cumulative increase of 3.6%. The price of imported barley was 312.4 US dollars / ton in February, up 21.8%. The wine industry produced 33000 kiloliters in January and February 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 34.0%. In February of 22, the import volume of wine was 19500 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%; The average unit price of imports was 4578 US dollars / kiloliter, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year. In March 22, Liv ex 50 index was 403.0, with a year-on-year increase of 13.7%; Liv ex 100 index 404.0, up 23.2%.
The wholesale price of pork rose slightly month on month, and the price of soybean meal in China increased significantly year-on-year. On March 25, 22, the wholesale price of fresh pork was 17.69 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.19 yuan / kg compared with March 18. On March 23, 22, the national average price of beef was 87.03 yuan / kg, down 0.13 yuan / kg from March 16. The price ratio of pig grain in large and medium-sized cities in China was 4.59 on March 30, 22. On April 6, 2002, the spot price of corn in China was 2838 yuan / ton, down 0.54% at the same time; The spot price of soybean meal in China was 4473 yuan / ton, up 31.68%. On April 5, the international spot price of corn was $8.62/bushel.
The price of raw and fresh milk in China fell year-on-year, and the price of overseas large bags of powder rose year-on-year. On March 23, 2003, the price of raw and fresh milk in the main production areas of the Ministry of agriculture was 4.18 yuan / kg, down 2.6% year-on-year, slightly down 0.01 yuan / kg month on month compared with March 16; On April 5, 2002, the auction price of New Zealand whole milk powder contract was 4532 US dollars / metric ton, an increase of 10.9% year-on-year; The contract price of skimmed milk powder was US $4599 / mt, a year-on-year increase of 36.6%. In December of 21, the import volume of liquid milk in that month was 119700 tons, with a decrease of 0.9%; In February, the import volume of fresh milk was 81900 tons, an increase of 1.1%.
The growth rate of catering and social security maintained zero, and the CPI of food decreased year-on-year in February 22. In January and February 2022, the cumulative value of catering industry revenue was 771.78 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.9%. The income of Catering Enterprises above Designated Size in January and February totaled 171.99 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 7.44 trillion yuan in January and February 2022, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. The completed amount of national fixed asset investment totaled 5.08 trillion yuan in January and February 2022, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. In February of 22 years, CPI of food decreased by 3.9% and 0.1pct compared with January
Investment proposal and investment object
The recent outbreak of the disease has rebounded nationwide, but Baijiu is in the low sales season, and is expected to affect the overall control. Beer has gradually entered the peak season, and the epidemic has dampened the consumption scene and had a great impact. However, the structural upgrading trend of major beer manufacturers has continued, and the price control fee has been raised to increase efficiency. The profit elasticity still exists; The epidemic affected the recovery pace of dairy demand, but the trend of long-term stable growth and slowing competition remained unchanged. It is expected that the profit will be released after the pressure on the cost of raw milk is relieved. High end wines are mainly recommended Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , buy) and sub high end wines Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ( Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , buy). Regional famous wines are recommended Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ( Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , buy), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) ( Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , buy) which are less affected by the epidemic and have better dynamic sales. Dairy products focus on structural upgrading, white milk demand is improving, competition is slowing down, and the rate of domestic cheese is decreasing Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) ( Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , buy); The structural upgrading, pattern improvement and cost control and efficiency increase trend of beer sector continue. It is recommended to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ( Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , overweight) and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) ( Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , not rated).
Risk tips
The economic downturn has led to a decline in demand and food safety problems.
