Market review: from March 1, 2022 to April 11, 2022, Shenwan Semiconductor Index rose or fell by -21.82%, and the semiconductor and electronic sectors weakened significantly. In terms of fine molecular sectors, the decline of semiconductor equipment was slightly lower than that of the whole, and the decline of digital chip design reached 20.90%. From the perspective of the overall valuation level, the overall valuation PE of Shenwan semiconductor sector is 44.06 times, and the valuation is in the last 10.50% quantile; The median valuation PE is 54.91 times, and the valuation is in the last 18.00% quantile.
Demand side: the downstream demand was weak at the beginning of the year, and the impact began to spread to the industrial chain. From the monthly revenue of industrial chain companies and the tracking of third-party data, the lack of innovation at the product level and the collective sprint of mobile phone manufacturers to the high price belt have a certain negative impact. Mobile phone sales were weak in the first two months of 2022. The outlook for server shipments is optimistic, and major overseas cloud computing manufacturers are taking practical actions for metauniverse. The revenue of BMC service provider Xinhua in March increased by 29.63% month on month and 66.31% year-on-year. The monthly revenue was higher than the peak level of last year. Looking forward to next year, overseas cloud manufacturers have a positive outlook on capital investment, while the new generation servers sapphire rapids and AMD epyc Genoa launched by server CPU suppliers Intel and AMD respectively have been greatly improved compared with the previous generation products. AI, unmanned applications, metauniverse and cloud computing will continue to drive the growth of underlying hardware devices.
Wafer foundry and semiconductor equipment: in the first half of the year, the production capacity was limited, and the industry turned to structural shortage. From the change of monthly revenue of Taiwan stock companies of wafer foundry and the operation data of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) first two months, the demand for 40 / 55nm of mature process is still strong. Combined with the differentiation of monthly revenue of IC design companies, IOT / vehicle / simulation and other application fields maintain strong toughness. In the first half of the year, the revenue of mature process foundry enterprises is still guaranteed when it is difficult for wafer foundry enterprises to expand new capacity. Looking forward to the capacity release of major wafer foundries in 2022, the capacity expansion of overseas liandian, lijidian and world advanced 2022h1 is less. It is expected that semiconductor wafers will be in short supply at least before the first half of the year, and the large-scale capacity release will need to wait until 2023 Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) and Huahong semiconductor law will preliminarily confirm that China’s main wafer foundry is not affected by regulation, and its production expansion plan is still steadily advancing. Therefore, the income of semiconductor equipment in the early stage is expected to be gradually recognized in the first half of the year. At the same time, the performance pull of semiconductor materials by the wafer foundry capacity successively invested since 2020 is expected to be gradually reflected.
Investment suggestion: since the beginning of this year, the semiconductor industry has experienced a round of in-depth adjustment. The market is worried that the demand for consumer products such as PC / mobile phone will decline in 2022, and the incremental sales of new energy vehicles will be affected by the cost and supply chain, while the foundry capacity of wafers will hardly have a large-scale increase in the first half of the year, and its price rise for IC design companies will constitute transfer pressure; The concern about the periodicity of the industry is deepened, and the stock price responds ahead of the performance; The impact of the epidemic on short-term fundamentals and systemic risks at the valuation level. Its market performance is the passivation of the response to the current performance, and it is worried about the impact of overdraft expectation and cross period income on the performance. Looking forward to the future, as the downstream demand returns to the stock market, there is a possibility of differentiation in the performance of enterprises in the industry. Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish between the changes in the prosperity of the industry and whether the performance growth of individual stocks in 2021 is the sales / ASP growth caused by product / customer expansion or the price rise effect caused by simple structural shortage. We maintain the rating of “leading market” in the industry and are optimistic about: 1 The logic of “domestic substitution” is gradually realized, which is intuitively reflected in the analog chip track with rapid growth in revenue and the number of products on sale. It is suggested to pay attention to Sg Micro Corp(300661) , 3Peak Incorporated(688536) ; 2. The demand for servers driven by traffic will continue to grow in 2022. At the same time, server updates at the hardware level and windows11 launched six years later will also bring innovation opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) and Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) , which benefit from the switching from DDR4 to ddr5; 3. It is suggested to pay attention to Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) and Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , benefiting from the increased penetration of downstream industries and the climbing demand for power semiconductor circuits.
Risk tip: trade friction intensifies, demand is lower than expected, and domestic substitution slows down.
