The promotion of new energy vehicles in Europe has a solid foundation and the penetration growth trend is stable. The rise of energy and fuel prices in Europe laid the foundation for the promotion of new energy vehicles. Superimposed on the quarterly nature of low before and high after the market, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in major European countries in March was gratifying. From the sales volume in March 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in all countries increased month on month. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the UK exceeded 260% month on month and 113% month on month in Norway. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles in the UK increased significantly. The sales volume of pure electric vehicles in March increased by 78.68% year-on-year, accounting for an increase of 8.35pcts year-on. From the perspective of permeability, the permeability of major European countries basically maintained a stable increase in March 2022, of which Sweden increased by 19.6pct year-on-year and the Netherlands increased by 25.7pct year-on-year. According to the sales volume of new energy vehicles in eight major European countries accounting for about 82% of the total in Europe in 2021, through the existing data of the new energy vehicle market in eight European countries, we expect that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe in March 2022 will be nearly 260200, with a year-on-year increase of 13%. In the future, it is expected that the number of passenger cars in Europe will increase steadily on the basis of 15 million. Combined with the continuous upward penetration of new energy vehicles, it is expected that there will be 7 million cars in 2025, the CAGR will reach 32% in four years, and the penetration of new energy will exceed 50% in 2025.
Policies lay the foundation for high growth, and automobile enterprises lead the general direction. The pressure of carbon emission policy is the fundamental reason for the growth of new energy vehicles in Europe. The European Commission officially proposed to increase the reduction of carbon emissions to 55% in 2030, and plans to completely end the era of internal combustion engine in 2035. Based on this act, the penetration rate of pure electric new energy vehicles in Europe in 2021 will be only 10.59%, while in 20252030/2035, the penetration rate of pure electric new energy vehicles in Europe is expected to reach 35%/65%/100%; Since the carbon emission target was set in Europe in 2020, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe is undergoing a transition. In the four quarters of 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 14.77% / 16.87% / 20.40% / 39.35%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.27pcs/8.47pcs/9.7pcs/18.95pcs respectively. At the same time, car companies led by Tesla and Ford and China’s lithium battery industry chain have put their capacity planning and factory construction in Europe. The global new energy vehicle market is gradually forming a stable supply system of “vehicle enterprises – batteries – materials – resources”. With the sudden emergence of the new energy vehicle market led by Europe, battery material manufacturers with global competitiveness in China’s lithium battery industry chain will continue to benefit.
Investment suggestions: 1) the long-term competition pattern is better and there are marginal changes in the short term. Key recommendations: A. battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ; b. Diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; c. Thermal management: Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ; d. High voltage DC: Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) ; e. Thin film capacitance: Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , it is recommended to pay attention to Xi’An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) etc. 2) 4680 technology iteration, driving the upgrading of the industrial chain. 4680 can achieve 210wh / kg at present. If high nickel 91 series and silicon carbon negative electrode are used in the subsequent system, the energy density of the system may be close to 270wh / kg, which can greatly solve the problem of heat management of high nickel series. Key points: A. large cylindrical shell: Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) ; b. High nickel positive electrode: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Guizhou Zhenhua E-Chem Inc(688707) , Hunan Changyuan Lico Co.Ltd(688779) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) ; c. Layout lifsi: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) . 3) Look at the high boom industrial chain with tight supply and demand in 2-3 years. Focus on: A. diaphragm: Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.Ltd(002108) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; b. Copper foil: Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Far East Smarter Energy Co.Ltd(600869) ; c. Negative pole: Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , beiteri, Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , etc.
Risk tips: 1) the sales volume of new models is less than expected. 2) The price of raw materials fluctuates. 3) Capacity expansion and product development were less than expected.
