Industry prosperity tracking: under the influence of epidemic factors, the wholesale in March was – 1.6% year-on-year. Passenger Federation caliber: in March, the output of narrow passenger cars reached 1.823 million (year-on-year – 0.3%, month on month + 22.0%), and the wholesale sales volume reached 1.814 million (year-on-year – 1.6%, month on month + 23.6%). The shortage of chips in the industry gradually resumed, and the number of working days increased month on month. There was a good foundation for the recovery of production and sales month on month in March, but the production batch decreased slightly year-on-year under the influence of epidemic factors. Caliber of traffic compulsory insurance: in March, there were 1410700 traffic compulsory insurance in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 15.6% / + 26.46% respectively. Caliber of China Automobile Association: in March, the total production and sales of passenger cars were 188.11864000 respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of – 0.1% / – 0.6% and a month on month ratio of + 22.4% / + 25.1% respectively. Export: in mid March, the export of Automobile Association caliber passenger vehicles was 121000, with a month on month ratio of + 21.8% / – 17.1%, of which 15000 new energy passenger vehicles were exported in March, with a month on month ratio of + 85.7% / – 68.5%. Looking forward to April 2022: we expect that the overall output and wholesale volume of the passenger Federation industry will be 1.5/1.5 million vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 9.53% / – 9.58% respectively; The overall export volume is expected to be 100000; The wholesale of new energy is expected to be 400000; The industry as a whole is expected to have 1.3 million strong traffic insurance vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 17.1% / – 7.9% respectively.
Inventory level: channel inventory is greatly replenished. In March, the inventory of industrial enterprises was + 90000 (compared with February), and the channel inventory was + 296000 (compared with February). Under the influence of the epidemic in March, the entry and transaction of dealers in Jilin, Shanghai, Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and other places were affected to a certain extent, so there were more supplementary stores at the end of the channel. Guangzhou Automobile Co., Ltd. / Guangzhou Automobile Co., Ltd. / Guangzhou Automobile Co., Ltd.
New energy tracking: the penetration rate of wholesale caliber exceeded 25%. According to the caliber of the passenger Federation, the output of new energy vehicles in March was 437000 (year-on-year + 124.2%, month on month + 24.9%), and the wholesale sales volume was 455000 (year-on-year + 122.4%, month on month + 43.6%). According to the standard of traffic compulsory insurance, the retail sales of new energy in March reached 445100 (year-on-year + 135.91%, month on month + 79.92%). In March, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 25.08%, with a month on month ratio of + 3.30pct. By region, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in non restricted areas accounted for 80.13% in March, with a month on month increase of + 0.37pct. In terms of price band, the sales volume of 5 Shenzhen Ecobeauty Co.Ltd(000010) 0000, 2 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 50000 and 25 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 in March accounted for + 0.39pct, + 5.10pct and + 1.10pct respectively. According to the price, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased month on month in all price ranges.
Independent rise tracking: the market share of independent brands with wholesale caliber increased month on month. By vehicle type: in March, the sales volume of independent brands in the passenger car / car / SUV market accounted for 48.70% / 39.0% / 57.2% (wholesale caliber) respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 5.6pct / + 5.4pct / + 5.7pct respectively. By technical route: in March, the retail market share of self owned brand traffic compulsory insurance in Bev / PHEV market was 74.79% / 83.06% respectively, with a month on month ratio of -4.3pct / – 2.2pct respectively.
Key models: terminal inquiry of most models is growing. From the perspective of terminal order inquiry volume, 1) in terms of new energy models, from the perspective of month on month growth, yuan plus and Weilai et7 performed well in March, with month on month growth of + 175.54% and + 137.05%. Euler black cat’s inquiry volume in March was – 68.99% month on month. From the perspective of absolute value, Hongguang mini and qinplus new energy had the highest order volume in March. 2) In terms of fuel models, from the perspective of month on month growth, the month on month performance of tank 500 orders was better, with a month on month increase of + 316.38%. From the perspective of absolute value, the key fuel models with the best performance in March are Chang’an cs75plus and great wall Haval H6.
Investment suggestion: the short-term epidemic brings fluctuations, and the logic of long-term optimistic about the automobile sector is still tenable. In 2022, there were 8 major gold stocks: complete vehicle [ideal + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Xiaopeng + Great Wall], parts [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ]. Secondly, the whole vehicle [GAC + Geely + Geely + Changan + coming of life + SAIC + well off + Jianghuai] and the whole vehicle [GAC + geegeely + Changan + well-off + well-off + JAC] and the whole vehicle [GAC + Geely + Geely + Changan + Changan + long vehicle + the whole vehicle + the whole vehicle [GAC + Geely + Geely + Geely + Changan + Changan + Changan + well + coming + SAIC + SAIC + SAIC + SAIC + SAIC + well + well off + well off + well off + jachuai + etc, parts and components [ Guangxi Radio And Television Information Network Corporation Limited(600936) 0093 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) 933 + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) for Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) 9 ].
Risk warning: the impact of chip shortage exceeds expectations; The demand for passenger cars is lower than expected; The epidemic control was lower than expected
