Steel:
The procurement volume of thread snails in Shanghai was – 82.35% month on month; The output of the five major steels increased by + 2.59% month on month; Inventory chain ratio + 1.17%; Steel price chain ratio + 0.41%; Raw materials rose and gross profit was under pressure. Recently, many real estate policies have been loosened. In the face of the downward pressure of the economy, it is expected that more real estate will be loosened in the future, and the marginal demand will improve and strengthen. In the short term, the steel price may be strong under the support of cost, and in the long term, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
The current price of LME copper / Changjiang nonferrous copper was – 1.11% / – 0.35% month on month; The current price of LME aluminum / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum was – 6.07% / – 5.56% month on month. Aluminum: the EU continues to impose sanctions on Russia, increasing concerns about overseas supply; China’s supply is constrained, its inventory is at a low level, with steady growth and demand for lightweight automobile protection. The interference of the epidemic does not change the expectation of high aluminum prices throughout the year.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of electric carbon / lithium hydroxide was – 2.00% month on month / flat. The upstream and downstream game of electricity and carbon, some large upstream factories reduce the price, and it is expected that the short-term price will be adjusted back slightly; The subsequent price of lithium hydroxide may stabilize due to the influence of electric carbon. In terms of nickel, LME nickel price was – 1.42% month on month. The situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorated again. This year, the global nickel market may be in shortage, and the nickel price is expected to remain high.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide was – 4.42% / – 3.39% / – 2.28% month on month. The purchase demand is weakened, and the supplier rationally reduces the price. In the short term, the price may be weak under the influence of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic.
Precious metals:
COMEX gold price / SHFE gold price + 1.51% / + 1.29% month on month. The market believes that the US tightening policy is slower or unable to alleviate inflation, so as to support the price of gold.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ( Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) ) and Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ) and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ) for industrial metals. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ). It is suggested to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ( China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ) and China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ( China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) ). It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ( Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) ) for precious metals.
Risk tips
The risk of price fluctuation of raw materials, the risk that downstream demand is lower than expected, and the risk that covid-19 epidemic spread is higher than expected.
