\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 022 Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) )
Event: on April 13, 2022, the company announced that it had signed a sales framework contract of RMB 680 million with Suzhou Huaneng.
Key investment points
The 680 million contract of Suzhou Huaneng ( Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) ) has been implemented, and the business of power exchange equipment is fast and large-scale: Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) and Suzhou Huaneng have signed a 680 million yuan (tax included) sales framework contract for commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles for power station equipment. We expect that this contract will be fulfilled as an order in 2022 (the amount will be subject to subsequent orders). The controlling shareholder of Suzhou Cheneng is Suzhou Xinyu (100% shareholding), while Suzhou Xinyu is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) with 100% shareholding. Therefore, Suzhou Cheneng is actually a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) with 100% shareholding. According to the Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) fixed increase project, it is proposed to build 485 replacement power stations, including 185 commercial vehicles and 300 passenger vehicles (30 in 2021 and 455 in 2022). According to this plan, we judge that Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) is expected to place another order in the second half of 2022.
Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) and Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) reached a five-year framework agreement, and the power exchange equipment business is ready to break out in 2022: Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) signed a cooperation framework agreement on power exchange project with Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) on January 28, 2022. According to the Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) strategic plan, a replacement station serving 3 Tianma Microelectronics Co.Ltd(000050) 000 electric vehicles will be built in 2022, and more than 500000 electric vehicles will be served by 2025. If each replacement station serves 100 electric vehicles, the planned number of replacement stations will be Tus-Design Group Co.Ltd(300500) in 2022 and 5000 in 2025. At present, the value of power exchange equipment for passenger cars and commercial vehicles is 2 million yuan / seat and 3.5 million yuan / seat. Assuming that with technological progress and scale effect, the value of power exchange equipment for passenger cars and commercial vehicles will decrease to 1.5 million yuan / seat and 2.5 million yuan / seat respectively in 2025, it is conservatively estimated that the corresponding equipment market space of Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) 5000 power exchange stations is 10 billion yuan (assuming that the value of power exchange equipment for commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles is 1:1). According to the in-depth cooperation between the two framework agreements, we judge that Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) occupies a high share in the expansion of Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) in the next five years.
2022 is the first year of the construction of power exchange station, and Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) as a head equipment supplier has fully benefited: (1) 2022: the current power exchange mode has been gradually recognized, especially in the field of commercial vehicles. In addition to Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) large-scale expansion of power exchange station, Geely also has a key layout in the field of power exchange heavy card. We expect that the new number of power exchange stations in the whole industry is expected to reach 2000 in 2022, We judge that the company, as the leader of power exchange equipment, is expected to accelerate the landing of batch orders. (2) It is estimated that the number of new power stations will exceed RMB 40 billion in 2025, and the corresponding growth of the industry is expected to be 16000 in the future. The company has three categories of products: equipment manufacturing of power station, core parts manufacturing and terminal operation system platform, and has the first mover advantage in the entry of key customers.
Develop new power exchange business with multiple advantages and Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) meet the second growth curve: (1) batch rapid delivery: Hanchuan has accumulated more experience in mass rapid delivery, and standardized design of minimum procurement unit and equipment unit for power exchange products. (2) Technology: the equipment needs to be accurate and stable, and has high requirements for the system integration ability of electromechanical optical soft integration. The underlying core technology of the company's automotive equipment business is common. (3) Resources: fully benefiting from the position of independent third-party equipment suppliers, customers are more diverse. (4) First mover advantage: the power station needs to adapt to various application scenarios, requiring continuous iteration of equipment, and the company has the advantage of experience. In the first year of the large-scale construction of the power exchange station in 2022, we bind major customers and establish the advantages of large-scale manufacturing and process production. The first mover advantage of the company is more than 1 year.
Profit forecast and investment rating: with the gradual expansion of power exchange business, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 0.7/1.7/320 million respectively, and the corresponding PE is 66 / 26 / 14x respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the construction of replacement power station is less than expected, and the development of new business is less than expected.
