\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 02 Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) )
Event: on April 11, 2022, Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) issued the annual report for 2021: the operating revenue reached RMB 11.802 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 1.210 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.22%; The weighted average return on net assets was 16.30%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.40 percentage points. The gross profit margin of sales was 18.90%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.90 percentage points; The net profit margin of sales was 10.44%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.79 percentage points.
Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 2.263 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 23.92% and a month on month decrease of 20.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 159 million yuan, down 0.14% year-on-year and 54.61% month on month; The weighted average return on net assets was 2.01%, down 0.31 percentage points year-on-year and 2.56 percentage points month on month. The gross profit margin of sales was 14.14%, with a year-on-year increase of 7.93 percentage points and a month on month decrease of 6.68 percentage points; The net sales interest rate was 7.19%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.70 percentage points and a month on month decrease of 5.27 percentage points. comment:
In 2021, the company achieved an operating income of RMB 1180200, a year-on-year increase of 17.21%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 121000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.22%. The company achieved 4.614 million tons of phosphate and compound fertilizer sales, a year-on-year decrease of 3.69%. Among them, the sales volume of phosphate fertilizer was 782200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.88%; The revenue was 2.118 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.20%. The sales volume of conventional compound fertilizer was 2.9283 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.37%; The revenue was 6.552 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.44%. The sales volume of new compound fertilizer was 903400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 25.44%; The revenue was 2.562 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.56%. The rapid growth of the company’s revenue and profit is mainly due to the rapid rise in the price of compound fertilizer. According to wind, the average price of monoammonium phosphate in 2021 was 289220 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 53.31%, and the price difference expanded to 843.2 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 225.89 yuan / ton; The average price of chlorine based compound fertilizer was 254820 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 31.83% and a price difference of 184 yuan / ton; The price of sulfur based compound fertilizer was 278840 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 32.30% and a price difference of 140 yuan / ton. With the arrival of spring ploughing season, fertilizer prices remained high. Meanwhile, the prices of main raw materials sulfur, phosphate rock, synthetic ammonia and potassium chloride also remained high, and the price difference of monoammonium phosphate narrowed significantly. As of April 11, 2022, the price of monoammonium phosphate is 3600 yuan / ton, an increase of 28.57% compared with the beginning of the year, and the price difference is 389 yuan / ton, which is at a historical low; The price of chlorine based / sulfur based compound fertilizer is 3300 yuan / ton and 3600 yuan / ton respectively, with an increase of 15.79% and 15.76% respectively compared with the beginning of the year, and the price difference is 163 yuan / ton and 214 yuan / ton respectively. The company’s supporting raw materials are synthetic ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid. At the same time, with the 900000 tons of phosphorus ore capacity of Leibo Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) mining injected into the company, the company’s integrated industrial advantages are strengthened and its cost control ability is further improved.
Lay out the new energy industry, expand the phosphorus chemical industry chain and open the second growth curve
The continuous and rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has spawned a strong demand for lithium batteries. Lithium iron phosphate battery has obvious advantages in cycle life, safety and cost. It has become one of the mainstream choices of lithium battery, and its proportion is still increasing. According to the data of power battery industry innovation alliance, the installed capacity of power lithium battery reached 154.5gwh in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 143%. Among them, the annual installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 80gwh, accounting for 52%, with a year-on-year increase of 227%. In order to enrich the product layout of phosphorus chemical industry chain, seize the development opportunity of new energy market and meet the growing demand for iron phosphate at home and abroad, the company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are expected to invest 6 billion yuan to build 300000 tons of iron phosphate, 150000 tons of lithium iron phosphate and related supporting projects, of which 2.5-3 billion yuan will be invested to establish joint ventures with Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) subsidiaries and Gem Co.Ltd(002340) subsidiaries to build 200000 tons of iron phosphate and related supporting projects respectively, It is proposed to invest in the project of no less than 100000 t / a lithium iron phosphate led by Gem Co.Ltd(002340) in the form of equity participation; Signed a project with Yidu Municipal People’s government to invest 3 billion yuan to build an annual output of 100000 tons of iron phosphate, 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate and supporting 100000 tons of refined phosphoric acid production line. The company is one of the leading enterprises in the phosphorus chemical industry chain, with a capacity of 900000 tons / year of phosphate rock and a capacity of 1.85 million tons of monoammonium phosphate (including 150000 tons of industrial grade monoammonium phosphate), ranking first in China, supporting the production of 2.7 million tons / year of sulfuric acid, 150000 tons / year of synthetic ammonia and 150000 tons / year of nitric acid. With abundant phosphate rock resources, complete integrated industrial chain of phosphorus chemical industry and years of industry accumulation, the company will have obvious cost advantages and Industrial Synergy advantages in promoting iron phosphate products. At present, 50000 tons of iron phosphate in Zhongxiang phase I has entered single machine trial production, and the construction progress of iron phosphate project is in a leading position in the industry. The promotion of new energy project management projects will help the company build the new energy industry into the second main industry after the main fertilizer industry, open the second growth curve, broaden the profit space in the future, and form a “two main and one auxiliary” industrial pattern from a single phosphorus and compound fertilizer industry to phosphorus and compound fertilizer, new energy double main industry and phosphogypsum building materials one auxiliary industry.
Invest in the construction of phosphorus chemical industry and comprehensive utilization project of phosphorus ore associated fluorosilicone resources, and strengthen the integration of the company’s industrial chain
At the same time, the company announced the Yangfeng Chuyuan phosphorus chemical industry and the comprehensive utilization project of fluorine and silicon resources associated with phosphorus ore, with a total planned investment of 6 billion yuan, including three sub projects. The phosphorus chemical industry project plans to comprehensively utilize 1.5 million tons of beneficiation, 300000 tons of phosphoric acid, 250000 tons of purified phosphoric acid, 900000 tons of sulfuric acid, 100000 tons of high-grade flame retardant, 100000 tons of potassium dihydrogen phosphate, 200000 tons of slag acid fertilizer and 1.5 million tons of phosphogypsum; The fluorosilicone chemical project is planned to have 30000 tons of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and 20000 tons of white carbon black; 10000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate is proposed for the new energy materials project. The construction of the project will help the company to further extend the phosphorus chemical industry chain, strengthen the strategic layout and competitive advantage of the integration of the company’s industrial chain, and help the company grasp the important development opportunities of lithium new energy industry, develop new products and markets, and enrich the industrial layout.
Focusing on the promotion of new fertilizers, independent innovation was carried out, and the increment of new fertilizers was significant
With the development of China’s social economy and the growth of residents’ income, residents’ dietary structure and nutritional needs are also gradually upgrading. People have an increasing demand for high-quality, diversified, nutritious, healthy, green and safe food. In the face of the improvement of consumer demand quality, Chinese grain growers have also begun to plant high-grade fruits and vegetables. Consumers’ demand and recognition of high-quality fruits in China have increased significantly. In the future, fertilizers will change to new and functional, and the penetration rate of medium and high-end fertilizers will continue to expand. The company closely followed the requirements of the national green development strategy and focused on developing the new fertilizer market. The sales volume of new fertilizer increased from 335600 tons in 2016 to 903400 tons in 2021, an increase of 169.23% in five years and an annual compound growth rate of 21.91%.
In terms of capacity construction, the company added more than 500000 tons of compound fertilizer in 2021, all of which are new fertilizers, including water-soluble fertilizer and high-quality special fertilizer for cash crops. The company has vigorously promoted the product innovation strategy and created an efficient R & D team, technical service team and marketing team for the R & D, technology promotion and marketing of new fertilizers. After nearly two years of technology and R & D accumulation, the company’s product innovation has been at the forefront of the same industry.
Expand 300000 t / a synthetic ammonia and consolidate the cost advantage moat
In April 2021, the company completed the issuance of 1 billion yuan of convertible bonds. All the funds raised this time will be used for the technical transformation project with an annual output of 300000 tons of synthetic ammonia. The 300000 t / a synthetic ammonia technical transformation project of Jingmen base of the company has been started in March 2020. It is planned to invest 1.5 billion yuan to expand the original 150000 T / a equipment to 300000 t / A. It is expected to be put into operation from June to July this year. The company has an annual production capacity of 9 million tons of all kinds of high concentration phosphorus compound fertilizer. Synthetic ammonia is an indispensable raw material for the production of compound fertilizer. However, with the continuous expansion of the company’s production capacity of various high concentration phosphorus compound fertilizers, the company’s supporting synthetic ammonia process technology is still at the level of 2005, and the production capacity is backward, which fails to provide cost advantages for the production of the company’s downstream products. In order to comply with the national requirements for eliminating backward production capacity and strengthen the leading position in the industry, the company eliminated the existing backward production capacity of synthetic ammonia through the implementation of this fund-raising and investment project, and introduced advanced technologies such as coal water slurry gasification process to improve the output of advanced production capacity. The implementation of synthetic ammonia project will help the company eliminate backward production capacity, introduce advanced technology, realize low-cost self-sufficiency of synthetic ammonia, effectively reduce the production cost of downstream products and improve profitability.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be RMB 1.581 billion, RMB 2.034 billion and RMB 2.676 billion respectively, with EPS of RMB 1.21, 1.56 and 2.05/share, corresponding to PE of 14.94, 11.62 and 8.83 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; The production capacity is lower than expected; Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials; Future demand decline; The progress of the new project is less than expected.
