\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 126 National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) )
On April 12, National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) released the annual report of 2021. The company achieved a revenue of 2.467 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 36.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 146 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.81%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was -132 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 149 million yuan. Corresponding to the fourth quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 700 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.71% and a month on month increase of 8.55%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 45 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.82%.
The revenue reached a new high and the gross profit margin of 12 inches increased significantly. In 2021, benefiting from the strong growth of semiconductor downstream demand and the high outlook of silicon wafer industry, the company’s revenue reached a new high, and all business lines achieved rapid growth: (1) the revenue of semiconductor silicon wafers of 8 inches and below was 1.421 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.78%; (2) The revenue of 12 inch semiconductor silicon wafer was 688 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 117.94%, and the gross profit margin was – 6.17%, a significant year-on-year increase of 28.65 percentage points, highlighting the scale effect. (3) The revenue of entrusted processing services was 297 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.28%. In a single quarter, as of 21q4, the company’s revenue reached a new high for seven consecutive quarters, reaching 700 million yuan, and the gross profit margin reached 19.03%.
The scale effect of 12 inch silicon wafer capacity climbing appeared, and the customer certification was accelerated. (1) In 2021, the company’s 12 inch silicon wafer production capacity increased from 200000 pieces / month at the beginning of the year to 300000 pieces / month at the end of the year. It has become the largest semiconductor silicon wafer company producing 12 inch silicon wafers in China, of which the positive wafer shipment volume exceeds 50%. We expect to reach full production in 2022. In addition, the company has started the production expansion construction of new 300000 pieces / month 12 inch silicon wafers in 2021. The company expects to start the production capacity climbing in early 23. (2) In terms of ASP, due to the tight supply and demand of semiconductor silicon wafers around the world and the rising prosperity of silicon wafers, benefiting from the rising price of silicon wafers and the optimization of the company’s product structure, the company’s 12 inch silicon wafer ASP reached 393 yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 12.55%. (3) The company’s customer certification has been accelerated. The 12 inch silicon wafer has passed the 14nm process logic customer certification, 19nm DRAM memory customer certification and 128 layer 3dnand memory customer certification. Technically, it has realized the full coverage and large-scale sales of 14nm and above logic process and 3D NAND storage process. Its main customers include Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Changjiang storage, Wuhan Xinxin, TSMC, grofangde and other large factories at home and abroad.
The product structure of 8-inch silicon wafer has been continuously optimized, and the capacity utilization rate has remained high. By the end of 2021, the company had a total capacity of 400000 polishing chips and epitaxial chips of 8 inches and below, and a total capacity of more than 50000 SOI silicon chips of 8 inches and below. Facing the high-end market segments such as RF front-end chips, analog chips, advanced sensors and automotive electronics, the company has maintained in-depth cooperative relations with a number of customers for more than 10 years. In 2021, the company’s capacity utilization of silicon wafers (including SOI silicon wafers) of 8 inches and below continued to maintain a high level. While expanding the capacity of SOI silicon wafers, the company further improved the capacity by removing bottlenecks and improving production efficiency, expanded the production of vehicle specification epitaxial wafers, and continuously optimized the product structure. In the future, the company’s silicon wafer product structure of 8 inches and below is expected to be continuously optimized and its profitability is expected to be continuously improved.
Investment suggestion: we expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22 / 23 / 24 years is expected to reach 266 / 384 / 492 million yuan, and the closing price corresponding to PE on April 13, 2022 is 228 / 158 / 123 times respectively. As the leader of domestic semiconductor silicon wafers, the company leads the domestic substitution of silicon wafers and maintains the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: capacity growth is less than expected; Cyclical fluctuations in downstream industries; Market competition intensifies.
