\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 019 Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) )
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 4.409 billion yuan (- 18.36%), a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 278 million yuan (- 71.25%), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 220 million yuan (- 74.41%) after deduction.
The decline in the price of calcium pantothenate has dragged down the performance, and the profit of API is expected to recover in 2022. In 2021, the company’s API revenue was 787 million yuan (- 46.49%), of which the revenue of vitamin B5 series was 470 million yuan (- 61.37%), and the gross profit margin of API was 44.54%, a year-on-year decrease of 31.64 percentage points. The sharp decline in the revenue and profit of API sector was mainly due to the sharp decline in the price of vitamin B5 products since the third quarter of 2020 due to the epidemic and African swine fever, which has been running at a low price in 2021. After the price of calcium pantothenate has been low for a long time, the profitability of enterprises in the industry has decreased significantly and the willingness to raise prices has increased. The price of calcium pantothenate has warmed up since the fourth quarter of 2021. At present, the quotation is 360 yuan / kg, which has returned to a higher level in recent years. We believe that the increase in the price of calcium pantothenate will help the company’s performance to achieve rapid growth in 2022. At the same time, considering the gradual digestion of low-cost orders and channel inventory in the early stage, it is expected that the profit in each quarter is expected to accelerate.
Self owned preparation products grew rapidly, and the promotion service business declined due to the impact of centralized procurement. In terms of business types, the company increased the promotion of its own products (including imports) in 2021, and the revenue of its own products was 1.627 billion yuan (+ 25.08%). The promotion service business achieved a revenue of 907 million yuan (- 43.05%), mainly due to the impact of centralized purchase of cooperative products (ceftazidime). In terms of business divisions, the small molecule business division focuses on products in the field of blood tumor, recombinant human insulin and newly introduced imported products, strengthens the promotion, and achieves an operating revenue of 489 million yuan (+ 30.85%); Focusing on the “531” core products, Sinopharm business division promoted the development and quantity work, and achieved an operating revenue of 2.293 billion yuan (- 13.48%) under the influence of centralized procurement, of which the sales revenue of its own products was nearly 1 billion yuan (+ 46.13%). We believe that driven by the rapid growth of our own products, it can effectively make up for the performance loss caused by the centralized purchase of ceftazidime, and the company’s preparation business still has good growth in the medium and long term.
The research and development of innovative drugs has been steadily promoted, waiting for a breakthrough in internationalization. In 2021, f-627 was officially accepted in the biological product license application (BLA) of FDA of the United States and EMA of the European Union, and the technical review of FDA of the United States has been basically completed; In 2022, it submitted the application for the listing of new biological products to nmpa, and signed commercial cooperation in China, Greece, Cyprus, Germany and other countries. Due to travel restrictions, FDA is unable to conduct on-site verification before approval. FDA will delay the approval of f-627 listing application until the on-site inspection is completed. The company has conducted many self inspections and simulated inspections in accordance with relevant FDA regulations and guidelines, improved the global quality system and quality culture, and is ready for on-site verification before the product is approved for marketing at any time. We believe that the final approval of f-627 for listing is still a high probability event.
Profit forecast and Valuation: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.521 billion yuan, 4.969 billion yuan and 5.725 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.5%, 9.9% and 15.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 876 million, RMB 962 million and RMB 1.189 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 214.7%, 9.8% and 23.5%. Based on the closing price on April 12, the corresponding PE was 16.8, 15.3 and 12.4 times respectively. The “overweight” rating was given for the first time.
Risk tip: the price increase range and duration of calcium pantothenate are lower than expected; The preparation business is affected by the epidemic; Overseas listing of innovative drugs was blocked.
