\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
Core view
Efficacy skin care leading enterprises, leading the market in growth and robustness. The company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of functional skin care products. Through professional product R & D strength, diversified channel layout and efficient marketing promotion, the company has achieved the growth and profitability of the leading industry. Under the influence of the recent epidemic rebound in the industry and the pressure of the consumption environment, the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years still increased by 52.6% / 58.8% respectively, and the market share firmly ranked first in the industry and continued to increase.
Efficacy the skin care industry has a broad space, and the head trend is prominent. In the past 21 years, the cosmetics agency had a zero growth of 14.0%. Although it slowed down, it was still better than the overall level of the consumer industry. Among them, the growth rate of the skin care market of the company was 32.50%, and the track advantage remained. In the future, with the maturity of consumer ideas, the promotion of product upgrading demand, and the decentralization of policy supervision and flow to improve the operating costs and threshold, the industry is expected to gradually transition from channel driven to product driven era, the differentiation between brands will continue to accelerate, and the head effect of the industry will further appear.
The main brand continues to open the growth ceiling along the existing mature methodology. The company's main brand has formed an operation methodology to adapt to the current industry trend: driven by the exclusive R & D and innovation promotion system, professional channel operation lays the foundation for brand reputation, and large-scale e-commerce public channel is the means to break the brand circle. In the future, the company will follow this path to create new large single product series such as sunscreen and whitening through 1) enrichment of product matrix; 2) The expansion of diversified channels, accounting for nearly half of tmall's channels, is the basic sector, and trembles and opens the increment of wechat private domain, so as to continue to open the ceiling of brand growth.
Main business empowerment, superposition of external brain coordination, multi brand layout, and creating skin health ecology. At present, the company has reserved a number of sub brands with different positioning, among which "Winona baby", which is positioned for children's skin care, is expected to gradually enter the rapid growth period through all channels this year after preliminary product reserve and offline professional channels; In addition, the new anti-aging brand "aoxmed" to be launched by the company this year will become a key cultivation project in the future. It adopts the form of internal equity incubation, relies on high-tech formula technology, and takes the offline high-end medical and American channels as a breakthrough to enter the market. In the long run, the company will continue to promote multi brand layout through endogenous extension, build a collaborative and complementary brand matrix with the main brand, and improve the ecological layout of skin health.
Profit forecast and Valuation: relying on the main brand, the company will continue to break the circle through products and channels, as well as the incremental contribution of the gradual implementation of new brands. In the next 3-5 years, it will still be in the period of rapid performance growth, maintaining the expected net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.19/16.1/2.18 billion (+ 38% / + 35% / + 35%) from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to EPS of RMB 2.81/3.80/5.14. Considering the absolute and relative valuation, we give the company a reasonable range of 247.21 yuan / share - 256.06 yuan / share, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the consumption environment is under pressure, the launch of new products is less than expected, and the promotion of offline channels is less than expected
