\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 57 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) )
Industry re differentiation: skin care products are differentiated from the symptom dimension. The improvement of penetration + consumption anchor is expected to drive the dermatology market to reach 100 billion
Core distinction: the core difference between dermatology grade skin care products and ordinary and strong efficacy skin care products is that they are aimed at symptomatic people. Consumers pay more attention to the effect and can be verified. The increase of product power premium constitutes a "Three Goods" logic, or will give domestic brands with late brand power precipitation the opportunity to overtake in the corner.
Core drive: driven by policy and demand, the scale of the industry has reached 100 billion. (1) Policy side: stricter supervision, accelerating the clearance of inferior products in the industry, improving the overall supply level, and benefiting Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) and other compliance enterprises; (2) Demand side: the simultaneous rise of volume and price drives the growth of industry scale. Based on the assumption of sensitive muscle population and per capita consumption level, we predict that China's dermatology grade skin care market is expected to reach 94.2 billion yuan in 2030. Space recalculation: Winona continues to break the circle of skin care market, and multi brand matrix cuts into each market segment
The main brand Winona takes root in the skin grade market and continues to market the broken circle large skin care market: Shengeng hospital + pharmacy + private channel, focusing on the sensitive muscle customer group. With the help of tmall and other public channels + explosive products strategy, Winona continues to build the broken circle single product marketing and expand the circle skin care market. It is estimated that Winona's revenue is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2025.
Winona baby has entered the blue ocean space of infant care and created a new growth pole: the upgrading of the consumption concept of maternal and infant care drives the growth of the industry scale. Compared with Japan and South Korea, Winona baby is expected to continue to seize the market share with the support of "brand power" + "channel power". Under neutral prediction, China's infant care market is expected to reach 43.7 billion yuan in 2025, and Winona baby's revenue is expected to reach 656 million yuan.
The high-end channel playing method of potential new product aoxmed has been verified, and clinical verification + transfer of main brand brand brand strength jointly build core advantages: in the early stage, it is expected to use clinical verification + endorsement of Winona brand strength to occupy offline channels, and in the later stage, it will use offline radiation online mode to enlarge revenue through public traffic.
Competitive advantage: at the current time, the industry competition intensifies + online dividends weaken. The company holds the biggest barrier of doctor endorsement + brand iteration + channel operation to build a deep moat
From the current node, the number of new brands entering the dermatology level has increased, and the trend of online channel price upward + flow decentralization is obvious. The company's core advantages are: 1) doctor endorsement: deeply cultivate the biggest barrier in the industry, doctor endorsement, grow together with doctors and enjoy the first mover advantage. 2) The combination of OTC channels and the formation of OTC brands are stronger. 3) Channel combination focuses on operational efficiency: combine Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) multiple channels to deal with the trend of fragmentation, focusing on improving channel adaptability + operational efficiency.
Investment advice
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the year of 22 / 23 / 24 is RMB 1.18/16.0/2.08 billion, corresponding to 63 / 47 / 36 times of the current market value of PE respectively. With reference to Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) 24-year peg given by comparable companies at home and abroad, the corresponding PE is 52 times, the corresponding target price is RMB 252.1, corresponding to 107.3 billion market value, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry, rapid growth in online customer acquisition costs, less than expected listing of new brands, cross market selection of comparable companies, and measurement of risks with certain subjectivity.
