\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
Key investment points
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.76%.
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 8.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.42%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.76%; The comprehensive gross profit margin was 21.57%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.92pct. The increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company was mainly due to the thickening of the company's investment income; The gross profit margin has declined, which is mainly affected by the price fluctuation of raw materials.
Tower: the capacity of tower and offshore engineering has expanded rapidly to build a global tower leader.
In 2021, the company's wind tower and related products achieved an operating revenue of 5.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.47%; The corresponding sales volume was 626400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.13%; The gross profit margin is 12.07%. Continuous expansion of tower capacity: up to now, the company's tower capacity is about 900000 tons / year; The tower base has preliminarily completed the nationwide capacity layout. The construction and operation of Shangdu 120000 T / A, Puyang 80000 T / A and Tongliao 120000 T / a have been completed. It is expected to continue to add a total capacity of about 300000 t / A in Qian'an, Shayang and Hepu in 2022. The tower capacity will reach 1.2 million T / a by the end of 2022. By the end of 2022, the company's Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a projects of German offshore engineering and Sheyang offshore engineering are expected to be put into operation, and the competitiveness of offshore wind power is further enhanced.
Blade: speed up the construction of production capacity by relying on the radiation effect of tower.
In 2021, the company's leaf products achieved an operating revenue of 1.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 17.58%, and the gross profit margin was 16.98%. The corresponding sales volume was 2675 pieces, a year-on-year increase of - 16.43%, and the gross profit margin was 16.98%. As of September 2021, the company's blade capacity is about 3600 pieces / year. In 2022, three production bases, Shangdu, Qian'an and Shayang, will be added, with a total capacity of about 3300 pieces / year.
Wind power generation: steady growth in installed capacity and high-quality wind farm resources.
In 2021, wind power generation achieved an operating revenue of 1.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.94%; The corresponding sales volume was 2.091 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 47.29%; The gross profit margin was 70.00%, a year-on-year increase of 3.47 PCT, and the wind power business accounted for 12.86%, exceeding 10% for the first time. By the end of 2021, the cumulative installed grid connected capacity of wind power was 0.88gw, with a year-on-year increase of 2.86%. The Wulanchabu 500MW project is expected to be grid connected by the end of 2022.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company's manufacturing capacity of tower blades and marine engineering has expanded rapidly, and the wind farm resources are high-quality; We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.421 billion yuan, 1.739 billion yuan and 2.240 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.79, 0.96 and 1.24 yuan / share respectively. The corresponding valuation will be 15 times, 12 times and 10 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the bidding price of tower blade decreases; Rising prices of raw materials; The project progress is less than expected.
