\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Comment event:
Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) released the annual report of 2021. The annual revenue was 5.985 billion yuan (+ 13.15%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 929 million yuan (+ 15.35%), and the non net profit attributable to the parent company was 799 million yuan (+ 15.95%). Among them, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.103 billion yuan (+ 28.33%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 334 million yuan (+ 21.46%), and a non net profit attributable to the parent company of 308 million yuan (+ 31.57%).
Core view:
Income analysis: the effect of price increase appears, and e-commerce returns to high growth. The company achieved a revenue of 5.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.15% (Q1: + 20.22%; Q2: - 12.70%; Q3: + 10.71%; Q4: + 28.33%), and the growth rate of Q4 improved significantly month on month, mainly due to the effect of price increase in October. 1) Sub products: sunflower seeds achieved a revenue of 3.943 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.86%, nuts of 1.366 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.82%, of which the annual sales of small yellow bags of nuts per day was nearly 1 billion yuan, and the sales of nut oatmeal per day exceeded 100 million yuan. The roof box version of daily nut gift box penetrated through the third and fourth tier cities, and the volume was obvious in the festival. 2) China's tiktok sales: 4 billion 760 million yuan, up to +12.73%, and 570 million yuan, compared with +11.03%, and the first half of the year, the company's electricity revenue has declined. The second half of this year has been back to the main channel, and has been growing through new channels such as marketing innovation, jitter, live broadcast and other new channels, achieving a positive growth throughout the year. 3) Sub markets: overseas sales reached 518 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.16%; China's offline sales reached 1.935 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.56%; northern sales reached 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.7%; Eastern sales reached 1.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.78%.
Profit analysis: Q4 price increase is well conducted, sales expenses have increased greatly, and the growth rate of deducting non profits is slightly higher than that of revenue. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 929 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.35% (Q1: + 32.71%; Q2: - 11.37%; Q3: + 13.81%; Q4: + 21.46%), deducting non net profit of 799 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.95% (Q1: + 38.12%; Q2: - 20.50%; Q3: + 4.42%; Q4: + 31.57%), and the growth rate of Q4 profit was higher than that of revenue. This was mainly due to the price increase of 21q4, which coincided with the preparation of goods in the Spring Festival. The channel acceptance was good, which significantly thickened Q4 performance. The annual gross profit margin was 31.95%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.06pct. In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin decreased, mainly due to the upward cost of packaging materials, the lower gross profit of newly launched roof boxes, and the Q4 gross profit margin increased by 5.24pct, mainly due to the effect of price increase. In addition, the annual sales expense rate was 10.10%, year-on-year + 0.33pct, the management expense rate was 4.44%, year-on-year -0.15pct, the annual non net profit margin was 13.35%, year-on-year + 0.32pct, of which Q4 deducted non net profit margin was 14.67%, year-on-year + 0.36pct, mainly due to the increase of gross profit margin, product publicity and Spring Festival Promotion.
22 year Outlook: price increase releases elasticity, nuts are expected to be in large quantities, and the follow-up is worth looking forward to. In October, the company adjusted the ex factory price of melon seed series products by 8-18%, and the price implementation began on October 22, 2021. 1) 22q1:21 due to the relatively high base caused by the postponement of the Spring Festival, the revenue growth rate in Q1 is expected to have a double-digit growth. At the same time, the price increase effect continues to appear, and the profit growth rate is expected to be higher than the revenue growth rate; 2) 22 years: the basis of this round of price increase is good. On the one hand, the channel inventory is good; On the other hand, the price of the whole industry is raised, and the consumer acceptance is expected to be good; Third, the company's price increase is accompanied by the adjustment of the company's internal organizational structure, and the efficiency is expected to continue to improve. In addition, the first two years of daily nuts were greatly affected by the consumption environment. Therefore, the company launched middle-end products such as roof boxes, which met the needs of consumers. In the early stage, there has been a large volume, and the subsequent volume is expected to continue. In the future, with the improvement of the economic environment and the gradual improvement of consumption, it is expected that the company's medium and high-end products are expected to continue in large quantities. We continue to be optimistic about the price increase effect of the company and the volume logic of nuts.
Profit forecast and rating: on the one hand, the effect of melon seed price increase is good, the foundation of channel inventory decontamination is good, and the consumer acceptance of collective price increase is high. Although the epidemic has been repeated recently, the demand for melon seed categories consumed at home is strong, and the price increase effect is expected to continue to appear. On the other hand, nut companies timely launch middle-end products such as roof boxes. The epidemic situation in third and fourth tier cities is relatively light, and the volume of roof boxes and daily nuts is expected to continue. We estimate that the company's revenue in 22-24 years will be 6.9 billion, 8 billion and 9.3 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 15%, 16% and 16% respectively, and the profit growth rate will be 24%, 19% and 16% respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.27, 2.69 and 3.13 yuan / share respectively. We give 30 times PE according to the performance in 2022, and the one-year target price is 68 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk warning: price fluctuation of raw materials; Deterioration of sales environment; Food safety issues, etc
