\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 01 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) )
Events
On April 13, the company released the performance express of 2021 and the performance forecast of 2022q1. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.687 billion yuan (+ 63%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.284 billion yuan (+ 89%) in 2021. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 250300 million (+ 894% - 1093%), and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 224274 million yuan (+ 2484% - 3060%), and the performance exceeded expectations.
Business analysis
Quadruple vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine sales increased rapidly, and the contribution of 13 valent pneumonia vaccine increased. In the first quarter of 2022, sales of quadruple seedlings of the main products increased by about 231% compared to the same period last year, and sales of hepatitis B vaccine increased by about 33% over the same period last year. In addition, the company's heavy variety of 13 price pneumococcal conjugate vaccine increased sales compared with the same period last year, which contributed to the company's incremental performance. According to the company's investor exchange documents, at present, the 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has been admitted in many provinces across the country, and the bidding access work in other provinces and cities is also actively promoted. In the future, the bidding and investment standards of all provinces across the country are expected to be in large quantities quickly after the completion of bidding and investment standards.
The heavy product pipeline continues to advance and gradually enters the harvest period. In the first quarter, the company made a number of positive progress in the pipeline of products under research. The heavy variety freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (human diploid cells) entered the registration site for verification, and the freeze-dried live attenuated varicella vaccine obtained the summary report of phase I and III clinical trials. The continuous promotion of the pipeline of products under research in the future is expected to add new impetus to the growth of the company.
Covid-19 vaccine is expected to contribute a certain increment. Covid-19 inactivated vaccine independently developed by the company was approved by China for emergency use in May 21. In the first quarter of 2012, with the approval of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, the National Health Commission began to deploy sequential immunization. At present, the sequential vaccination and homologous vaccination of covid-19 vaccine are promoted simultaneously, and the company's covid-19 vaccine is expected to contribute a certain increment.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
Considering the company's announcement and the impact of the epidemic, we raised the company's profit forecast for 21 years by 10% and lowered the company's profit forecast for 22-23 years by 22% and 21%. For the time being, we do not consider the contribution of covid-19 vaccine to the company's performance in 2022 and 23 years. It is expected that the company's net profit attributable to its parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.284 billion yuan, 1.465 billion yuan and 2.031 billion yuan, an increase of 89%, 14% and 39% year-on-year, with EPS of 1.9/2.1/3.0 yuan and PE of 53 / 46 / 33 times respectively.
Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
The sales of heavy varieties did not meet expectations; The progress of R & D and registration does not meet expectations; Shareholders' reduction risk; The construction progress of raised investment projects does not meet expectations; Intensified market competition, etc.
