\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 01 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) )
Event: on April 13, 2022, the company released 2021 performance express and 2022q1 performance forecast. In 2021, the total operating revenue was 3.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.07%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.22%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.211 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 95.23%. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 250300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 893.93% - 109272%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 224274 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248383% - 306038%.
The contribution of covid-19 increased significantly in 21 years, and the conventional varieties were under pressure. 2021 achieved a revenue of 36.87 (+ 63.07%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.284 billion yuan (+ 113.22%), of which covid-19 vaccine was put on sale in June, and the revenue in the first three quarters is expected to account for about 50%. Quarter by quarter, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.311 billion yuan (+ 55.91%), a net profit of 248 million yuan (+ 0.81%), and a net interest rate of 18.91% (- 10.33pp). It is expected to be related to the price reduction of covid-19 vaccine, the run on conventional varieties by covid-19 vaccination, cost sharing, etc.
22q1 conventional varieties resumed sales, and the new pcv13 entered a large-scale period. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 250300 million yuan (+ 893.93% - 109272%); Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 224274 million, (+ 248383% - 306038%). Due to the change of the 22 year epidemic prevention policy and the reform of the company's channel, regular quadruple vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine began to resume sales, which increased by 231.35% and 33.24% respectively, while the new PCV13 began to contribute to the new increment in the preparation of Q4 last year.
The product pipeline enters the harvest period, and multiple heavy varieties are arranged. Pcv13: the company's pcv13 was approved to be listed in September. As of 22q1, 11 batches have been approved and issued. We expect the market scale of China's pcv13 to reach 10.8 billion yuan and the peak sales to reach 3.3 billion yuan. It is estimated that the company's annual output of hdcv will reach 2.2 billion, and the sales scale of hdcv is expected to reach the peak of hdcv. It is expected that the market of hdcv will reach 6 billion. In addition, MCV4, mpsv4, EV71, IPV, freeze-dried chickenpox and other phase II / III varieties are worth looking forward to. At the same time, the company has also arranged a number of cutting-edge and heavyweight varieties, such as DTaP IPV Hib pentavalent vaccine, DTaP IPV tetravalent vaccine, mumps fengshuipox tetravalent vaccine, pentavalent oral rotavirus live vaccine, tetravalent hand, foot and mouth disease vaccine, tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine, pcv20 and so on. Among them, the application for pentavalent oral rotavirus live vaccine has been accepted clinically. The pentavalent vaccine is benchmarked to the original Sanofi products with a global sales of US $2.4 billion in 2020, and has obtained clinical approval, It is expected to become the first domestic Wulian seedling product.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: due to the price reduction of covid-19 vaccine and the shrinkage of the market, the company's traditional varieties began to recover in large quantities, and the new pcv13 contributed new increment. We adjusted the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 to 4.018 billion yuan, 5.617 billion yuan and 7.319 billion yuan respectively (6.388 billion yuan, 9.293 billion yuan and 11.222 billion yuan before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 63.07%, 52.34% and 30.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.284 billion yuan, 1.774 billion yuan and 2.435 billion yuan respectively (2.006 billion yuan, 2.888 billion yuan and 3.689 billion yuan before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 113.22%, 22.52% and 37.24%. From 2021 to 2023, the income of conventional vaccines was 2.179 billion yuan, 4.392 billion yuan and 6.094 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.63%, 101.55% and 38.75%; The net profit was 545 million yuan, 1318 million yuan and 2133 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 19.79%, 141.86% and 61.87%, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is lower than the expected risk, the sales of vaccine products do not meet the expected risk, and the risk of negative events in the vaccine industry; Covid-19 virus mutation leads to the risk of vaccine failure; The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
