\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 48 He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) )
Core view
With the advance of Spring Festival and the growth of returning passenger flow, 21q4 revenue achieved a bright growth of about 40%. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.524 billion yuan (+ 35.65%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 570 million yuan (+ 31.77%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 568 million yuan (+ 32.17%). Among them, Q4 achieved revenue of 670 million yuan (+ 39.48%), net profit attributable to parent company of 169 million yuan (+ 28.15%), and net profit not attributable to parent company of 167 million yuan (+ 28.26%). The revenue of 21q4 was the peak of the company’s revenue in the fourth quarter in recent years, mainly because ① the Spring Festival in 22 was ahead of schedule, and some sales were reflected in Q4. With the normalization of the epidemic and flexible control, the return passenger flow in Spring Festival increased significantly compared with that in 21 years, and the demand for gift giving increased; ② Throughout the year, the company strengthened market intensive cultivation, improved team execution, and completed the work of channel development and terminal distribution in the early peak season, so as to promote the sales of products in the peak season.
Promotional activities decreased and 21q4 gross profit margin improved month on month. The gross profit margin of 21q4 of the company was 48.27%, with a month on month increase of 14.15pct and a year-on-year decrease of 3.68pct, mainly due to ① the rise in the prices of almonds, packaging materials and other raw materials in 21 years; ② Q3 is the company’s traditional off-season, with more promotions. Q4 returns to normal sales and the gross profit margin has increased. At the same time, Q4 is the company’s traditional peak sales season, and the sales expenses increase. Therefore, the sales rate increases by 11.32pct month on month, and the final net interest rate of Q4 is 25.11%, increasing by 1.5pct month on month.
The reform measures have been implemented in an orderly manner, and the operation has been significantly improved. We look forward to the launch of new products. After the new chairman Shen Zhijun took office in March 21, various reform measures were implemented in an orderly manner: ① intensive cultivation of channels and improvement of terminal distribution rate have achieved remarkable results, and Q4 revenue has performed well. In the future, the company will continue to fill the gap in advantageous areas in the north and do a good job in channel sinking; ② It is expected that the new products will be first introduced to the East China and southwest China markets in April / May of 22. The products mainly include two categories: Almond dew and almond + drink with new flavor and low sugar. The effect of the new products is expected; ③ Middle and senior managers in market, brand, R & D and other aspects are in place one after another, and the equity incentive plan is expected to be launched in 22 years; ④ In terms of channels, the company will also strengthen e-commerce operation, improve brand and product exposure, and promote the transformation of terminal sales. On the whole, we believe that the reform of the company in the past 21 years has achieved remarkable results, and the operation and management has improved significantly. We look forward to the implementation of new products.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects sales, food safety risk and cost price fluctuation risk.
Investment suggestion: the reform of almond dew leader continues to advance, which is expected to usher in a new growth curve and maintain the “buy” rating.
Considering the uncertainty of the impact of the epidemic on the company’s product sales and new product launch process, we slightly adjusted the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.1/37/4 billion yuan (the range of change is – 3.5% / – 3.5% / + 5.0%), with a year-on-year growth rate of 23% / 20% / 18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 680 / 820 / 970 million (with a change range of 0% / 0% / + 6.0%), with a year-on-year growth rate of 19% / 20% / 18%; The current share price corresponds to PE 13 / 11 / 9x. The company is the absolute leader in China’s Almond dew industry, with strong brand potential and deep foundation in the northern market. After the new chairman took office, various reform policies were gradually implemented and the business situation was gradually improved. 22 years is an important year for the launch of the company’s new products, which deserves special attention and maintains the “buy” rating.
