\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 019 Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report and realized an operating revenue of 4.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 71.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74.4%.
Innovative R & D continues to make breakthroughs, and the f-627 is worth looking forward to. At present, the company's R & D progress is the fastest f-627, which is an innovative biological drug variety developed based on the existing di kinetm bimolecular technology platform with independent intellectual property rights of Yiyi biology. F-627 is mainly used to prevent and treat neutropenia caused by chemotherapy in tumor patients. It can make neutrophils in tumor chemotherapy patients proliferate and recover rapidly, so as to enhance the ability of immune system to resist infection, so as to prevent patients from dying of infection or other related complications during chemotherapy. In 2021, FDA and EMA officially accepted the BLA application of Yiyi biological f627 and entered the technical review stage. At the same time, f-627 submitted the application for the listing of new biological products to nmpa in January 2022 and was officially accepted. The global listing of f-627 is just around the corner. It is expected to become a large variety of more than 1 billion and a new performance growth point in the future.
The rapid development of preparation business is the core driving force of the company's performance. At present, the company's preparation business is mainly operated by three business divisions: Yifan national medicine, Yifan small molecule and Yifan international. After rapid layout in recent years, the company has rich variety resources, including traditional Chinese medicine, small molecule chemical drugs, insulin and many other categories, among which there are many exclusive varieties of Chinese patent medicine, which has maintained rapid growth in recent years. It is expected that in the future, with the gradual listing of the company's independently developed products and the gradual increase of introduced varieties, the preparation business is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.
Vitamin business dragged down performance and is expected to resume growth in 2022. In 2021, vitamin B5 was affected by covid-19 epidemic, African swine fever and other factors, which led to the decline of feed demand in the breeding industry and the release of new production capacity in China, resulting in the overall supply of the market exceeding the demand and the price falling sharply; Superimposed on the price rise of raw materials, the increase of logistics cost, the increase of fuel power cost and other factors, the operation cost was increased, and the overall gross profit margin of API sector decreased. At present, the company is a leading enterprise of vitamin B5, which has significant advantages in production capacity and cost. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of vitamin B5 price, it is expected to continue to contribute stable profits to the company.
Profit forecast and rating. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 890 million yuan, 1.23 billion yuan and 1.58 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.72 yuan, 0.99 yuan and 1.28 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price valuation of 19 times, 14 times and 11 times respectively, maintaining the "hold" rating.
Risk warning: sales are less than expected; Risk of centralized purchase; Risk that the progress of products under development is less than expected.
