\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
The company released the annual report of 2021, and the profit increased by 25% year-on-year; The company’s capacity continues to expand, and with the help of industrial park projects to strengthen industrial chain cooperation, the development of wind farms is expected to speed up; Maintain buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
The profit in 2021 increased by 25% year-on-year: the company released the annual report of 2021, realizing a revenue of 8.166 billion yuan, an increase of 1.42% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.310 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.76%, and the net profit deducted was 1.075 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.91%. The performance of the company’s annual report is in line with expectations.
The revenue of wind tower business remained stable: in 2021, the company sold 630000 tons of wind towers and related products. At the bottom of the demand after the rush installation of onshore wind power, the company’s sales volume still increased by 6.13% year-on-year; The revenue of the sector was 5.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.47%. Affected by the confirmation of freight to cost and the high price of steel, the gross profit margin of the sector decreased by 5.24 percentage points to 12.07%, and the annual gross profit per ton of wind tower was about 998 yuan / ton.
Blade business declined slightly, and wind farm development is expected to accelerate: in 2021, the company sold 2675 blades and 61 sets of molds respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16.43% and an increase of 48.78% respectively. The leaf business realized a revenue of 1.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.58% and a gross profit margin of 16.98%. In terms of power generation business, the company’s cumulative grid connected capacity reached 884mw in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 2.86%. The annual power generation capacity was 2.091 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 47.29%, and the power generation revenue was 1.051 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.94%. Since 2021, the company has begun to explore the asset light operation mode, and the development speed of wind farm is expected to accelerate in the future. The 500 MW project in Ulanqab is expected to complete the full capacity grid connection by the end of 2022.
Forward looking layout of production capacity and deepening business cooperation of industrial park projects: the company’s production capacity is prospectively distributed in key areas of future wind power development. In 2021, the company’s production bases in Shangdu, Puyang, Tongliao and other places will be put into operation successively. At present, the production capacity is 900000 tons / year. The construction of Germany and Sheyang marine bases is progressing steadily. It is expected to form Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons / year marine capacity by the end of 2022. In addition, the company actively promotes the wind power industrial park project and deepens cooperation with the main engine factory. Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) has signed an agreement to become an enterprise in the park, invested in the construction of 1GW + wind turbine production line, and prioritized the production of wind power main engine orders in the central and Eastern markets.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company’s annual report and industry demand, we adjusted the company’s predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 0.84/1.09/1.32 yuan (the original prediction from 2022 to 2023 was 0.78/0.96 yuan), corresponding to 14.0/10.9/8.9 times of P / E; Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Covid-19 epidemic impact exceeded expectations; Price fluctuation of bulk raw materials; The demand of wind power industry does not meet expectations; The profit of the wind farm does not meet the expectation; The new business layout did not meet expectations.
