\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 126 Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) )
In 2021, the total revenue was + 23.6% year-on-year, and the proportion of new energy thermal management revenue increased to 10.7%
On April 13, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the total revenue of the company was 7.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 31.5%. Among them, the revenue of new energy heat management was 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 190%, accounting for 10.7% of the overall revenue from 4.6% in 2020. In terms of downstream applications, the revenue of commercial vehicle & non Road business was + 11% year-on-year, and that of passenger vehicle business was + 65% year-on-year. The company's commercial vehicle business actively launched new products such as heavy truck retarder and oil cooler, and continued to explore overseas markets. In 2021, when the sales volume of downstream commercial vehicles in the Chinese market declined, the company's commercial vehicle business revenue still maintained positive growth. Affected by the early overdraft of car purchase demand caused by the switch from national five to national six, the revenue growth of the company's tail gas treatment business in 2021 was 8.6%, and the year-on-year growth rate fell back to single digits for the first time since 2017. Considering the impact of the epidemic in China and the rhythm of replenishment of spare parts inventory, we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2022, raised the profit forecast for 2023, and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.6 (- 0.6) / 5.7 (+ 0.2) / 790 million yuan respectively, EPS will be 0.45 (- 0.08) / 0.72 (+ 0.02) / 0.99 yuan / share, and the current share price corresponding to PE from 2022 to 2024 will be 18.6/11.7/8.5 times respectively, The company's new energy and industrial heat exchange business accelerated and brought high growth, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Full orders drive the continuous growth of the company's performance, and management optimization is expected to help repair profits
According to the disclosure of the company's annual report, in 2021, the company obtained 141 new projects, including air-conditioning box assembly of North American new energy benchmark car enterprises, front-end module and thermal management integration module of China's new car making forces, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) battery cooling board, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) electronic water pump, caterpillar cooling module, etc. after the completion of the above-mentioned new projects, the company's annual sales revenue was nearly 4.1 billion yuan, of which new energy accounted for about 48.7%. According to the company's announcement, the company's 2021 convertible bond raising and investment projects - new energy passenger vehicle heat pump air conditioning system project and new energy commercial vehicle heat management system project are expected to be put into operation in 2023 and 2024 respectively, which is expected to contribute to incremental performance. In 2021, the rising price of raw materials, the rise of export sea freight and the rapid increase in the proportion of new energy business revenue with low gross profit margin dragged down the company's profits. With the continuous mass production and supply of new projects, the scale effect of new energy business and the implementation of management optimization measures, the company's profits are expected to be repaired upward.
Risk tips: the demand for automobiles at home and abroad is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the development of new projects is less than expected.
