\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 180 Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) )
It maintained rapid growth in 2021, with operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent company CAGR of 28% and 39% respectively in the past six years. According to the annual report issued by the company, the operating revenue in 2021 was 3.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.6%; The net profit was RMB 338 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, mainly driven by the steady growth of kitchen cabinet, wardrobe retail and bulk commodities. In the second half of the year, under the background of high performance base, the company’s single quarter revenue still achieved steady growth, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue increased by 82% / 50% / 14% / 20% respectively, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 net profit increased by 588% / – 22% / – 18% / 25% respectively, and the profit fluctuated greatly due to the low base of Q1 and the fluctuation of raw materials from Q2. Reviewing the performance of the past six years, the company achieved rapid growth as a whole from 2015 to 2021, with operating revenue and net profit attributable to parent CAGR of 28% and 39% respectively.
There is still a large market share for customization. According to the past increase rate of customization penetration rate and real estate sales data, it is estimated that the scale of customization industry will be close to 250 billion yuan in 2022, with broad market space, corresponding to the overall customization penetration rate of about 42%. It is expected that the improvement trend of customization penetration rate will continue in the future, and the CAGR of the industry will be about 7.5% Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) in recent years, the market share of the company has increased rapidly. The market share of the company in the customized home industry has continuously increased from 0.7% in 2015 to 1.5% in 2021, but it is still significantly low. From the perspective of industry structure, the market of customization industry is still relatively scattered, CR7 is only about 20%, and the market share of the company still has great room for improvement in the future.
The retail of kitchen cabinets recovered, and the growth of new categories of wardrobe and wooden doors was bright. The company’s customized kitchen cabinet is the core advantage category. In 2021, the revenue was 2.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. The sales of kitchen cabinet retail channels resumed growth. In 2021, with the recovery of offline retail and the recovery of store opening rhythm, the retail of kitchen cabinet achieved a 13% growth. Since 2015, the company has started to develop new types of wardrobe and wooden doors. In 2021, the company’s wardrobe revenue reached 800 million yuan, maintained a high-speed growth of 60.33% year-on-year, and the proportion of revenue increased to 23.2%. From 2018 to 2021, the company’s wardrobe business revenue CAGR was 80%; The revenue of wooden doors reached 84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 242%, and the volume is still in the stage of rapid improvement.
The opening of retail stores accelerated and the operation of the same store improved, and the bulk growth fell. Retail channel: in 2021, the company’s retail revenue was 2.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, which was contributed by the opening of stores and the improvement of the same store. By the end of 2021, the number of kitchen cabinets, wardrobe and wooden door stores (including those under construction) owned by the company in China was 1720, 919 and 388 respectively, with a net increase of 135, 197 and 207 compared with the end of 2020. The opening of kitchen cabinets regained growth, the opening speed of wardrobe and wooden door stores maintained a rapid growth, and accelerated the coverage of national retail channels. At the same time, in 2021, the company’s single store revenue recovered. On the basis of a net increase of 569 stores throughout the year, it also achieved an overall single store revenue of about 680000 yuan / store. While accelerating the opening of new stores, the operating efficiency of the same store was improved. Bulk channels: in the second half of 2021, the real estate policy was tightened and the growth rate of the industry slowed down. At the same time, the thunderstorm of some real estate enterprises had a systematic impact on the bulk industry. The company’s revenue from bulk channels in 2021 was 1.145 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%. The company further strengthened the strategic cooperation with real estate enterprises such as central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises, strengthened the management of accounts receivable, and there was no abnormal impairment of accounts receivable.
Profit forecast and investment rating: since last year, the company has actively promoted digital transformation and upgrading, accelerated innovative channel mode and market coverage, and achieved steady growth in kitchen cabinet retail business and rapid growth in wardrobe and wooden door retail business. Equity incentive shows development confidence, and the diversified categories and channel layout in the future are worth looking forward to. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 414 million yuan, 503 million yuan and 615 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, 21.3% and 22.5% respectively. At present (2022 / 4 / 12), the share price corresponds to 12x PE in 2022, which is lower than the average level of comparable companies in the industry, and the “buy” rating is given for the first time.
Risk factors: the risk of continuous decline in real estate sales and the risk of sharp rise in raw material prices.
