\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Event:
Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) released the annual report of 2021 and the performance forecast of Q1 in 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 7.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86.37%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 143.60%, a net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of Non Profits of 2.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 159.17%, and a basic earnings per share of 3.06 yuan. Year on year + 128.36%. In Q1 of 2022, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 865950 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 100.19% - 119.86%, a net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of Non Profits of 835920 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 106.20% - 127.19%, and a basic earnings per share of 0.96-1.06 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.9% - 116.33%.
Key investment points:
The cost advantage of lithium diaphragm is significant, and the profit continues to improve. In 2021, the company's overall gross profit margin was 49.86%, a year-on-year increase of + 7.23pct. As the main business segment, lithium battery isolation membrane achieved a revenue of 6.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 114.89%, accounting for 80.64% of the revenue, a year-on-year increase of + 10.70pcts, a net profit of 2.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 150.21%, a net interest rate of 40.41%, a year-on-year increase of + 5.70pcts, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.452 billion yuan. According to our calculation, the company's annual average single average net profit in 2021 is about 0.85 yuan, and the single average net profit in Q4 in 2021 is about 0.9 yuan. With the continuous improvement of the proportion of overseas customers and the proportion of coated film, the net profit of single average will be further improved. The cost advantage of the company mainly comes from the large-scale production and large-scale raw material procurement, the increase of production rate brought by reasonable production scheduling, high single line output, yield and auxiliary material recovery rate, low on-line coating cost, localization substitution and cost reduction of equipment and coating materials, and the gross profit margin advantage of overseas customers. The company spent 443million yuan in 2021, with a period expense rate of 5.55%, a year-on-year increase of -3.81pcts. The improvement of the company's management and control ability boosted profit growth.
Bind high-quality customers at home and abroad and improve the profitability. The company has signed a guarantee agreement of RMB 5.178 billion in 2022 with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) company; Signed a US $258 million procurement contract with ultiumcells up to 2024; Signed a supply agreement with China Innovation airlines with a total amount of no more than 2.5 billion yuan in 2022; And signed a supply agreement with a large overseas automobile enterprise with a total of no more than 1.65 billion square meters from 2022 to 2024. Overseas customers have high requirements for product performance and high gross profit margin. Relying on technical advantages and product stability, the company is deeply bound with overseas customers. It is expected that the revenue of overseas customers will account for 30% in 2022, and the profit structure will be further improved.
The increase in the proportion of coated film promotes the enhancement of profits, and the advantages of online coating technology are significant. The company is the first to realize the large-scale production of online coating in the industry, which can reduce the production cost by about 20%, greatly improve the production efficiency, and improve the uniformity, heat shrinkage, air permeability and other indicators of the coating layer. The company has 11 online coating production lines, and the company expects to reach 34 / 56 in 2022 / 2023, with a corresponding online coating capacity of about 3.3/5.4 billion square meters. It is estimated that the proportion of coated film will be about 30% in 2021 and 40% in 2022. The single average net profit of coated products is higher than that of base film. With the increase of downstream demand for coated products and the gradual release of coating capacity, the profitability of the company will be gradually enhanced.
The downstream demand of lithium diaphragm is strong, and the production is expanded and the speed is increased. The company shipped about 3 billion square meters of diaphragm in 2021 and about 1.3 billion square meters in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of about 131%. The company has a diaphragm production capacity of 5 billion square meters. With the gradual implementation of the company's production expansion and new projects in Suzhou Jieli, Jiangsu Jintan, Wuxi, Chongqing, Zhuhai, Jiangxi and Hungary, the production capacity is expected to reach 8 billion square meters by the end of 2022 and 10 billion square meters by the end of 2023. It is estimated that the company will ship 4.5-5 billion square meters of diaphragms in 2022 and 6.5-7 billion square meters of diaphragms in 2023.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company benefited from the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles, driving the rapid growth of power battery demand, strong downstream demand, the proportion of coated film in the company's product structure and the proportion of overseas customers in the customer structure. In view of the risk that the market demand of lithium battery in 2022 will be affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials and the epidemic, we slightly lowered the company's forecast for 2022. It is estimated that the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 14.133 billion yuan, 20.184 billion yuan and 26.827 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.175 billion yuan, 7.345 billion yuan and 9.306 billion yuan. The current share price corresponds to PE of 33.8x, 23.8x and 18.8x. However, the market demand of lithium battery is generally good and is still rated as "buy".
Risk tips: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is less than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, the capacity expansion is less than expected, the equipment delivery speed is less than expected, the price competition in the industry is intensified, the supply of coating materials is limited, etc.
