\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 291 Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) )
Event: Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) ( Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) . SZ) released the 2021 annual performance express and 2022 Q1 performance forecast on April 8, 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.814 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.81%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was – 704 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 24 million yuan in the same period of last year. In a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 80-120 million in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 752.71% – 117906%.
Comments:
Internet marketing business increased significantly. Affected by the spread of covid-19 pneumonia, since March 2022, the social e-commerce service business has encountered problems such as difficulties in sending and receiving express, and the development of the company’s related business has been impacted to a certain extent. However, the company has overcome many difficulties and still achieved a significant year-on-year growth of the business. The Gmv of the related live e-commerce has increased by about 60% year-on-year, and the profit scale of the related business has increased greatly. We expect the impact of the epidemic to last for several months.
The epidemic has a great impact on offline business, but the loss narrowed year-on-year. The epidemic has had a long-term and sustained impact on local economies. The overall consumer demand is weak, especially on offline commercial sales, which has had a great impact on the digestion of the company’s footwear inventory. In addition, the company’s additional costs arising from business transformation have led to an operating loss in the footwear business in 2021. The company’s shoe business has narrowed significantly in Q1 last year, but the shoe business is still in the state of loss on a year-on-year basis. In addition, the company began to implement the equity incentive plan in early 2021, resulting in amortization expenses of about 69.23 million yuan and 22q1 of about 19 million yuan.
The live broadcasting process and system tend to be improved, and the epidemic situation may promote “hoarding” consumption. The company has built a multi-level anchor matrix, and has signed anchors and artists represented by Huang Zitao, Jia Nailiang, Cecilia Cheung, Lou Yixiao and Yu. In 2022, the company still focuses on the clothing sector, including jewelry, jewelry and other categories. The Qiaosi town business district, which began full operation in April, will realize the business scene of 24-hour Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) operation, and end-c users can get offline shopping experience, Anchor and service providers can carry out business for online users in the mall, so as to better realize the circulation of goods and industrial agglomeration. In addition, the recent epidemic has repeatedly led to the isolation of more and more consumers at home, or prompted consumers to “stock up” consumption, which may benefit live e-commerce.
Pay attention to digital assets and launch digital virtual human and twin anchor technology. The virtual human “Kong Xiang” has officially appeared in Jia Nailiang’s short video on April 8. In the later stage, it is expected to participate in live delivery and other links as a virtual anchor. “Kong Xiang” is the first digital virtual human of Yuanwang. It is a super AI program developed by Yuanwang and has the function of deep learning. This virtual human can understand human emotions and realize the awakening of intelligent creatures, in order to help human beings solve various social problems in the future. Yuanwang, as the publisher of kongxiang IP, and Mata, as the publisher of the platform, jointly launched kongxiang, a digital collection. Twin anchor technology can realize the replication of anchor in short video live broadcast TVC, so that each IP has the possibility of unlimited expansion, whether it is the extension of live broadcast duration or the fission of IP number. “Multiple people are one person” can be realized, and multiple head masters can be generated by copying. For example, a person with a head live broadcast can live for about 20 hours a week. With twin anchor technology, the total live time of the two can reach 200 hours or more.
Investment suggestion: the company continued to promote strategic transformation and upgrading, actively developed mobile internet marketing business, and social e-commerce service business developed rapidly. The company attaches great importance to the development of digital asset business, which will become another core competitiveness of the company in the future. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to be RMB 611 / 1020 million, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.67/1.12 and PE of 21.97x/13.16x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: industry policy risk, increased market competition risk, goodwill impairment risk, KOL risk and other risks.
