\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 410 Glodon Company Limited(002410) )
Company: the leading manufacturer of digital platform services in the construction industry, helping the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry
Leading manufacturers, secondary entrepreneurship. In 2017, the company launched the "secondary entrepreneurship", committed to becoming the core engine of industrial transformation and upgrading from the helper of construction industry development, and the cost business started cloud transformation.
In 2021, the net profit of the company achieved a rapid growth of 100.3%, the revenue increased by 40.3% year-on-year, the rate decreased by 9.8pct year-on-year, the revenue increased, the fee control increased, and the company is entering the cash period of net profit growth.
Great opportunities brought by the digital transformation of the construction industry. Every 0.1% increase in the informatization rate of the construction industry will bring more than 10 billion incremental investment in the informatization of the construction industry. It is estimated that by 2025, the investment scale of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) industry informatization will exceed 100 billion. The transformation of digital cost cloud has entered the final stage, and the Glodon Company Limited(002410) basic market continues to be stable.
In 2021, cloud revenue accounted for nearly 70% of the total revenue of digital cost, and the cloud transformation was nearly completed.
The revenue growth of cost business is driven by "quantity" and "quality". The improvement of customer penetration and the regularization of pirated users have increased the number of users, and software value-added services and product innovation have improved ARPU.
It is expected that by 2025, the overall market scale of digital cost will be close to 9 billion yuan, and Glodon Company Limited(002410) cloud revenue is expected to exceed 6.5 billion yuan. Digital construction creates Glodon Company Limited(002410) secondary growth curve.
The absolute position of the company in the cost market and the platform development idea build the core competitiveness of digital construction. At present, the overall penetration rate of construction business is still low and the market prospect is broad.
The overall trend of digitalization of construction enterprises will not change, especially in the context of the overall decline of the upstream real estate industry, the demand for cost reduction and efficiency increase through digital means will be stronger. Based on the current gross profit margin of construction business, we infer that the company will achieve profit and loss balance of construction business from 2024 to 2025 Glodon Company Limited(002410) "semi cross border" design field to create an ecological layout of the whole industrial chain.
Glodon Company Limited(002410) .
In the short term, the profitability of the design business will still depend on Hongye's software products, while the digital design software with independent core still needs a long time of project verification and iteration. It is expected that the independent software platform will be difficult to bring substantial commercial benefits in the next three years. However, the "semi cross-border" design field is a strategic necessity for Glodon Company Limited(002410) building the layout of BIM whole industry ecological chain and getting through the upstream and downstream data of design, cost and construction.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company of Guanglianda from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 984 / 1333 / 1.945 billion respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.83/1.12/1.63 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 48.9% / + 35.5% / + 45.9%. Referring to comparable companies, it is estimated that the target market value of Glodon Company Limited(002410) 2022 will be 81.729 billion yuan, corresponding to the target price of 68.66 yuan. It will be covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the digital transformation of the industry is not as expected; The construction industry has entered a downward cycle; Intensified competition in digital construction business; Technology advancement is not as expected
