\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 01 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) )
Event: the company released the performance express of 2021 and the performance forecast of the first quarter of 2022, of which the operating revenue in 2021 was 3.69 billion yuan (+ 63%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.28 billion yuan (+ 89%), and the net profit deducted from the non attributable to the parent company was 1.21 billion yuan (+ 95%). It is estimated that in the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 250 million yuan to 300 million yuan (+ 894% ~ + 1093%), and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company will reach 220 million yuan to 270 million yuan (+ 2484% ~ + 3060%).
The performance of 21 years was in line with expectations, and covid-19 vaccine contributed to the main performance increment. In the quarter of 21q4, the company realized a net profit of 250 million yuan (+ 1%), which was mainly due to the slow vaccination of covid-19 vaccine in China and the frequent sporadic outbreaks in various places, which also affected the sales of traditional vaccines. According to the export data of the customs and the prediction of the company's production capacity, the company's annual covid-19 vaccine revenue is about 2 billion yuan. It is mainly contributed by the company's export of inactivated vaccine and adenovirus vaccine. At present, the company's adenovirus covid-19 vaccine has obtained the local EUA in Indonesia in early November and has been exported for local epidemic prevention and control. The EUA work in other regions is continuing. It is expected that the adenovirus covid-19 vaccine will continue to be in large quantities after it is approved in 2022. Conventional varieties have declined due to the epidemic situation and covid-19 vaccine centralized vaccination. Among them, quadruple vaccine is mainly due to channel optimization, and 23 valent pneumonia vaccine is expected to resume growth in 2022 due to the high base in 2020.
22q1 traditional varieties are superimposed on newly listed varieties to achieve rapid volume. The substantial growth of the company's performance in 22q1 is mainly due to the rapid rebound growth after the optimization of silianmiao channel. The revenue in 22q1 increased by 231% year-on-year, and it is expected to achieve about 1.3-1.4 billion yuan in the whole year. Second, the hepatitis B vaccine 22Q1 revenue increased by 33% over the same period, mainly 60. μ G product contribution increment. At present, the 13 price pneumonia vaccine has been admitted in most provinces in China. The company adopts the low price strategy, and 22q1 is estimated to achieve the annual target of 10%. In 2021, under the condition of low base, the company's conventional varieties will continue to invest in the company's channels, and the sales volume is expected to exceed the market expectation.
In the next 2-3 years, the products will be approved to increase step by step, contributing to the company's long-term performance increment. At present, the company has more than 30 projects under research, and 13 have entered the registration process. It is expected that 4-5 new varieties will be approved in the next two years. Among them, the freeze-dried diploid crazy vaccine, as the industry gold standard, has received the on-site verification notice. The summary report of phase I and III clinical trials of freeze-dried varicella vaccine has been completed in March 22. The results show that the company's vaccine has good immunogenicity and safety for healthy varicella susceptible people aged 1 ~ 55 years. In addition, MCV4, IPV and other vaccines have entered or completed phase III clinical stage, and the recombinant EV71 vaccine has completed phase II clinical stage. At present, it is preparing to be transferred to tetravalent hand, foot and mouth disease vaccine, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine and other vaccines have obtained the notice of approval for clinical trial. The product pipeline is based on innovation, focuses on solving the existing unmet needs, and has sufficient power for long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Covid-19 vaccine revenue is not considered. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.91 yuan, 1.85 yuan and 2.74 yuan respectively. In the long run, the COVID-19 will weaken the future, and the traditional vaccines (quadruple vaccine, hepatitis B vaccine, etc.) will enter the stage of recovery in 2022. The new product 13 valent pneumonia vaccine is approved to be listed, and the volume of the vaccine is expected to accelerate in 2022. As China's innovative vaccine enterprise, the company is rich in research and management line, and will have many varieties approved in the next 2-4 years.
Risk warning: the R & D of new products is lower than expected, and the product price reduction risk.
