\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 019 Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) )
Investment summary
Events
On April 12, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.409 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 278 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 71.25%.
Comments
The research projects are accelerated, and the global progress of f-627 is bright. In 2021, the company continued to invest 523 million yuan in multiple R & D projects, accounting for 11.87% of revenue, and made significant progress. The BLA applications of the company's heavyweight innovative drug f-627 were accepted by FDA and EMA in Europe, and entered the key stage of technical review respectively. The technical review of FDA in the United States was basically completed, and the on-site verification was carried out before the approval after the epidemic situation improved; F-627 obtained the drug production license of Beijing preparation factory in 2021, and the application for listing in China was accepted in February 2022; In terms of commercialization, f-627 has signed commercialization cooperation agreements in China and parts of Europe. In addition, in 2021, the product under development f-899 completed the application for new drug China ind and started clinical trials; F-652 was approved to treat ACLF China ind, and the first subject was enrolled.
The API sector is under pressure due to the epidemic situation and other factors. In 2021, the company's API segment achieved an operating revenue of 1.062 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.44%, of which vitamin B5 series achieved a revenue of 470 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.37%. Affected by covid-19 epidemic and African swine fever, superimposed on factors such as rising prices of raw materials and rising logistics costs, it has decreased significantly since the third quarter of 2020. It has continued to operate at a low price in 2021, and the gross profit margin of API sector has decreased by 31.64% year-on-year. From the third quarter of 2021, the price increase trend of vitamin B5 is significant, which is stable at the level of 350 yuan / kg. After inventory digestion, the performance of API sector is expected to recover significantly in 2022.
The performance of self owned products has increased significantly, and differentiated competitive advantages have emerged. In 2021, the company's domestic pharmaceutical preparation business focused on highlighting its own products. The inclusion of cooperative products in centralized procurement reduced the company's promotion service income, and increased the promotion of its own products (including imports). The revenue of its own pharmaceutical products was 1.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.08%. The company optimizes the product structure, promotes its own products through academic and channels, realizes large-scale production, and continuously contributes profits to the company.
Investment advice
The company's innovative drugs have made remarkable progress in the world. When the epidemic situation improves, it will usher in the on-site verification before FDA's approval of f-627; Vitamin B5 series is expected to drive the significant growth of the company's performance after inventory digestion. We adjusted the company's profit forecast: the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 was 5.854/66.49/7.768 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32.78% / 13.58% / 16.82%; The net profits attributable to the shareholders of the listed company were 890 / 1129 / 1466 million yuan and EPS were 0.72/0.92/1.19 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE from 2021 to 2023, which are 18.82/14.83/11.42 respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic risk, R & D less than expected risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, international operation risk, goodwill impairment risk, etc.
