Weekly performance of the sector: this week (2022 / 1 / 4-2021 / 1 / 7), the machinery sector fell by 1.2%, and the top five sectors of fluctuation range are: construction machinery / oil and gas equipment / agricultural machinery / oil and gas service III / coal equipment III, rising by 6.3% / 3.2% / 3.0% / 2.6% / 2.4% respectively;
Sector valuation level: the median pettm of the machinery sector is 39x, of which the highest valuation is lithium battery equipment (105.6x) and the lowest valuation is construction machinery (16.7x). From the historical data within 10 years, the P / E ratio of the machinery sector is in the quantile of 32.82%;
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: the five stocks with the highest increase this week are Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co.Ltd(000530) , Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) , Tanac Automation Co.Ltd(300461) , Wuhan National Pharmaceutical Technology Co.Ltd(600421) , Uni-Trend Technology ( China) Co.Ltd(688628) ;
Industry highlights: on December 28, 2021, eight departments including the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission officially issued the intelligent manufacturing development plan for the 14th five year plan; At the national energy work conference in 2022, Zhang Jianhua, Secretary of the Party group and director general of the national energy administration, released seven key tasks for next year’s energy work; The collection of banking and insurance regulatory fees and securities and futures regulatory fees shall be resumed, and the charging standard shall be implemented temporarily according to the charging standard before the introduction of the temporary exemption policy; State Power Investment Group Co., Ltd. recently held the opening ceremony of hydrogen buses for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics in Beijing. During the Beijing Winter Olympics, 200 hydrogen buses equipped with “hydrogen Teng” fuel cell system will provide transportation connection support services for Yanqing competition area.
Investment proposal and investment object
The amount of bonds issued by China Railway increased in 2021, and equipment procurement is expected to pick up. Recently, the State Railway Group held a working meeting. In 2021, the national railway completed a fixed asset investment of 748.9 billion yuan and put into operation 4208 kilometers of new lines (2168 kilometers of High-speed Railways). In 2022, the main work objectives are that the national railway will send 3.038 billion passengers (YoY + 20%), 3.804 billion tons (YoY + 2.1%), and put into operation more than 3300 kilometers of new lines (including about 1900 kilometers of ordinary speed railways). According to the Urban Rail Transit Association, as of December 31, 2021, a total of 50 cities in China have put 9192.62 kilometers of urban rail transit lines into operation, including 7253.73 kilometers of subway. In 2021, a total of 1222.92 kilometers of new urban rail transit lines were added. From the actual mileage, the railway mileage in 2021 is slightly higher than the planning at the beginning of 2021 (3700km of the new line is planned to be put into operation, and the actual 4208km). We believe that the epidemic situation is expected to ease in 2022 and bring about a rebound in passenger traffic, and the railway operation in 2022 is also expected to exceed the planning at the beginning of the year.
In terms of bond issuance by China Railway Group, 185 billion yuan, 1600 billion yuan and 230 billion yuan will be issued in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively, and the amount of bond issuance will increase significantly in 2021. Historically, the amount of bonds issued in 2014 / 2018 / 2021 reached or exceeded 230 billion, while the output of motor cars in 2021 was relatively low or indicates the recovery of prosperity in 2022. At the central economic work conference in December 2021, it was pointed out that we should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, moderately advance infrastructure investment, and organically combine cross cycle and counter cycle macro-control policies. We believe that the National Counter cyclical regulation is still increasing, and we suggest paying attention to energy security and counter cyclical regulation.
It is recommended to pay attention to:
(1) construction machinery: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) (600031, not rated), Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) (000157, bought), Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) (601100, not rated), Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) (600984, not rated), Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) (603638, not rated); (2) Industrial equipment: Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) (603298, Unrated), Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) (600761, Unrated), Qinchuan Machine Tool & Tool Group Share Co.Ltd(000837) (000837, Unrated), Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) (300415, Unrated), Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) (002747, Unrated), Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) (300607, Unrated); (3) Logistics automation: Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) (603066, not rated), Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) (603611, not rated), Cimc Vehicles (Group) Co.Ltd(301039) (301039, not rated); (4) Energy equipment: Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450, not rated), Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) (300724, not rated), Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) (002353, not rated), Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery Group Co.Ltd(601717) (601717, not rated), Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) (600582, not rated); (5) Rail transit equipment: Crrc Corporation Limited(601766) (601766, not rated), Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-Speed Railway Equipment Corporation(000976) (000976, not rated); (6) Service & Consumption: Shenzhen Anche Technologies Co.Ltd(300572) (300572, Unrated), Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) (300012, Unrated), Jack Sewing Machine Co.Ltd(603337) (603337, Unrated), Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) (603583, Unrated), Changzhou Kaidi Electrical Inc(605288) (605288, Unrated), Hangzhou Youngsun Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603901) (603901, Unrated).
Risk tips
The epidemic development is less than expected, the macro economy is less than expected, infrastructure investment is less than expected, raw material prices rise, and Global trade conflicts intensify.
