Key investment points
Supply and demand outlook: the end of real estate policy has been realized + accelerated investment and construction of affordable housing + infrastructure support; Normalization of energy consumption with dual control promotes supply optimization. 1) Since October 21, the signals of policy stability maintenance have been frequent, and the margin of capital side has improved. In November, the investment of real estate loans increased both month on month, and the personal housing loans / development loans increased by more than 110 / 90 billion respectively year-on-year. In December, the central bank successively reduced the deposit reserve ratio and one-year LPR, and the bottom of the policy has reached. It is estimated that the real estate sales, commencement and construction will increase negatively (- 5.8% / - 20.5% / - 1.1%), the completion will increase slightly (3.8%), and the real estate investment will decline by 3.2%. In addition, the construction of affordable housing is expected to be accelerated. We estimate that 7.57 million sets (380 million square meters) of affordable housing will be supplied in 40 cities during the 14th Five Year Plan period. 2) Under the goal of steady growth, the approval of 21h2 infrastructure projects + issuance of special bonds have been accelerated. The approval of new special bonds in 22 years has been issued in advance. Infrastructure is expected to become an important starting point for steady growth. 3) Under the dual carbon target, the dual control of energy consumption is expected to be normalized, the restrictions on high energy consuming industries will be tightened, and the backward production capacity will be gradually cleared, bringing a far-reaching impact on the supply side.
The expected bottom of brand building materials is established, and the performance repair is worth looking forward to. 1) Since 21q4, "bottom of real estate policy + broad real estate market (affordable housing)" + landing of credit risk + stabilization and decline of raw material prices, and the expected bottom of brand building materials has been established. 2) From the 14-year and 18-year recovery, the expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials. 3) Leading enterprises have enhanced their competitiveness and highlighted their growth (category expansion and application expansion) during the pressure period of the industry. They hope to meet the performance and valuation recovery resonance in 22 years.
New materials: pay attention to the industrial opportunities of high demand growth + domestic substitution resonance. 1) Carbon fiber: the demand for civil wind / light / hydrogen is facing the outbreak, China's industrialization wave has arrived, and the leading capacity expansion and cost reduction are expected to speed up and meet the historical opportunity of domestic substitution. 2) High purity quartz sand: the demand for quartz sand, a consumable for photovoltaic crystal pulling, has increased rapidly. The supply pattern of "two overseas + one large in China" has led to new controllable industries, a continuous tight balance between supply and demand, and the leading capacity expansion + cost advantage has helped to continuously improve the localization rate. Consumables for semiconductor equipment are also interesting. 3) Electronic cover glass: Chinese enterprises have made technological breakthroughs and passed downstream certification. Under the condition of improving the penetration rate of domestic mobile phones and ensuring the security of the supply chain, domestic substitution is accelerated. 4) UTG: the penetration of folding screen mobile phones is accelerated + the trend of replacing CPI is obvious, and the demand welcomes the outbreak; Take the lead in realizing technological breakthroughs and benefiting mass production enterprises.
Glass fiber: the cycle weakens and the boom continues. The pressure release period of 21q4 production capacity has expired; It is expected that the supply and demand of roving will be in tight balance in 22 years, the boom will continue, and the price of electronic yarn will drop. Under the dual control of energy consumption, the pace of capacity delivery in the "14th five year plan" industry may be lower than expected, and the cyclical trend is expected to weaken. We are optimistic about the capacity expansion and global layout under the absolute cost advantage of the leader.
Building glass price toughness still exists; The bottom of photovoltaic glass cycle may have price elasticity. 1) Completion toughness + dynamic adjustment of cold repair (kiln age capacity of 8-10 years / more accounts for 13.7% / 14.1%), supply and demand may be in dynamic balance, and price toughness still exists at high cost. 2) Photovoltaic glass: under the dual control of energy consumption, the new supply may be less than expected, and the price at the bottom of the industrial cycle may be upward elastic. Optimistic about the income proportion of traditional glass enterprises in the field of photovoltaic glass and improve their cost competitiveness.
Cement and water reducing agent: benefit from infrastructure construction; Cement industry integration + extension; Water reducing agent opens up growth space for functional materials. Cement demand is expected to remain stable, supply is expected to shrink under the double carbon policy, and the price center is stable. Look at the cost decline and repair profit. With sufficient cash, cement enterprises have opened a new round of integration and merger, and the extension of industrial chains such as aggregate and concrete has also contributed to growth. The proportion of leading functional materials of water reducing agent has increased and accelerated its growth into an admixture platform enterprise.
Conclusion: pay attention to the infrastructure chain in the short term; In the past 22 years, we were optimistic about the investment opportunities of brand building materials and new materials. Brand building materials recommend Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , and it is recommended to pay attention to China Liansu, Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) . In the field of carbon fiber and quartz materials, Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhongfu Shenying (proposed IPO), Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) . In the field of glass fiber, China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Xinyi Glass, Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) . In the field of cement and water reducing agent, Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) are recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) and Chinese building materials. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) and Shandong Yuma Sun-Shading Technology Corp.Ltd(300993) for the export chain.
Risk warning: the demand is less than expected; Deterioration of cash flow; The prices of raw materials and energy rose sharply; Technological change; The information lags behind or is not updated in time; Industry scale measurement deviation.
