Market Review
This week, the light industry manufacturing industry index fell 0.18%, outperforming the market by 2.21pct; The paper sub sector rose 1.52%, outperforming the market by 3.91pct. This week, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.39%, and the light industry manufacturing (Shenwan) index fell by 0.18%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.21pct, ranking 13th among the 28 Shenwan level industries; In the secondary industry, the paper sub sector rose 1.52%, outperforming the market by 3.91pct. This week, the four sub sectors of light industry were papermaking, furniture, entertainment products and packaging and printing in order from large to small. Among them, papermaking and furniture increased by 1.52% and 0.99% respectively this week, while entertainment products and packaging and printing decreased by 0.74% and 3.01% respectively this week.
Industrial chain data tracking
In terms of raw materials, the factory price of domestic waste (excluding tax) increased slightly, and the price of foreign waste increased; The external price of wood pulp remained stable, and the spot prices of broad-leaved wood pulp and coniferous wood pulp increased; The price of dissolved pulp has increased. (1) The factory price of national waste (excluding tax) rose by 3 yuan / ton this week; The CIF price of American waste and European waste OCC in Southeast Asia increased by USD 3-10 / ton, and the daily waste price remained stable; (2) The outer disk price of hardwood pulp and coniferous pulp remained stable this week; The spot price of broad-leaved wood pulp increased by 68 yuan / ton, and the spot price of coniferous wood pulp increased by 206 yuan / ton; In late December 2021, the wood pulp inventory of China’s three major ports totaled 1.56 million tons, down 13.9% month on month; (3) The price of dissolved pulp increased by 50 yuan / ton this week.
This week, the price of cultural paper was basically stable, the price of white cardboard fell, and the price of box board paper rebounded slightly. According to the average market price of finished paper including tax according to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the price of double offset paper remained stable this week, and the prices of coated paper and white cardboard fell by 10 yuan / ton and 228 yuan / ton respectively; The average ex factory price of box board paper increased by 4 yuan / ton.
The profitability of wood pulp paper products is differentiated, and the profitability of waste paper products is improved. The profit level is characterized by the price difference between finished paper and raw materials. The profit of wood pulp paper products is differentiated this week. The large double offset paper enterprises increased by about 30 yuan / ton and the small paper enterprises decreased by about 76 yuan / ton; Coated paper large paper enterprises increased by about 21 yuan / ton, while small paper enterprises decreased by about 80 yuan / ton; The profit of white cardboard decreased by about 190-289 yuan / ton compared with last week; The profit of waste paper products increased by about 9-18 yuan / ton compared with last week.
In November 2021, the inventory of finished products of machine-made paper and paperboard increased by 3.4% month on month. (1) The cumulative output of machine-made paper and paperboard from January to November 2021 was 123.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; (2) Excluding the influence of price factors, the finished product inventory (estimated value) of machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing industry increased by 7.9% year-on-year and 3.4% month on month in November 2021; (3) In terms of import volume of paper and paperboard, from January to November 2021, the cumulative year-on-year decrease was 1.6%; In terms of export volume, the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to November was 7.0%.
Risk tips
The risk that macroeconomic growth slows down and terminal demand declines more than expected; Risk that the promotion of overseas new projects does not meet expectations
