Key investment points
Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked 22nd, and SW passenger car PE was in the historical quantile of 96%. SW auto fell 3.9%, underperforming the market by 1.3pct. In the automobile sub segment, the sales of SW passenger cars, SW Auto Parts III and SW automobiles remained unchanged. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked 22nd this week, ranking lower. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical 96% / 97% quantile respectively, with the quantile of – 1PCT / – 1PCT compared with last week; PE / Pb of SW parts are at the historical 77% / 78% quantile respectively, and the quantile is – 4pct / – 5pct compared with last week. Horizontal comparison, passenger car plate valuation in PE is higher than white appliances than Baijiu, PE is lower than white household appliances and Baijiu; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (this week specifically refers to 2022.01.03 ~ 2022.01.08, the same below. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter in the text, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Business tracking: the shortage of chips continued to improve, and the production, wholesale and retail were up month on month; Enterprise & Channel replenishment. According to the passenger Federation, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars from December 27 to 31 were 109162, with a year-on-year increase of – 9% and a month on month increase of + 5%; In December, the cumulative daily average retail sales volume of passenger cars was 69570, with a year-on-year increase of – 6% and a month on month increase of + 19%; From December 27 to 31, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 102139 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 17% and a month on month increase of – 16%; In December, the cumulative daily average wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 73617, with a year-on-year increase of – 1% and a month on month increase of + 6%. The output of narrow passenger cars in November was 2.229 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.1% and a month on month increase of + 13.9%; The retail sales volume was 1.816 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.7% and a month on month increase of + 6.0%; Wholesale sales volume was 2.15 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 5.1% and a month on month increase of + 8.9%. Inventory: in November, the inventory of traditional car enterprises was + 79000. After considering the impact of export, the channel inventory was + 283000.
Focus: the price of raw materials rose slightly. According to our self built passenger car raw material price index model, weighted by the five raw material price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel, the overall raw material price index of passenger cars in the second week of January (01.04-01.07) was + 3.31% month on month (12.27-12.31), and the price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel were + 1.69% / + 2.71% / + 2.03% / – 0.09% / + 3.65% month on month respectively.
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. The triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment in the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands are listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to achieve higher quality. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. Parts and components recommend [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pay attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
