Key investment points
Electrical equipment 11495 fell 8.31%, weaker than the market. This week (from January 4 to January 7, the same below), industrial control automation rose 0%, nuclear power fell 3.05%, new energy vehicles fell 6%, power generation and power grid fell 6.08%, lithium battery fell 6.96%, wind power fell 8.57%, photovoltaic fell 9.23% and power generation equipment fell 9.59%. The top five gainers are star cable, Fujian Superpipe Co.Ltd(300198) , Zhejiang Sunflower Great Health Limited Liability Company(300111) , * ST hakong, Dalian Zhiyun Automation Co.Ltd(300097) ; The top five declines were Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , St Xinmei, Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) , and Aoyang Shunchang.
Industry level: electric vehicles: in December, 223000 electric vehicles were sold in 9 mainstream European countries, with a month on month ratio of + 1% / + 21%; In December, the sales volume in the United States was 76000, with a month on month ratio of + 75% / + 5%; Tesla FSD will rise (+ 2000 $) to $12000 in the United States; Sony will set up Sony mobility company to enter the electric vehicle market; With a registered capital of 800 million yuan, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) invested to establish a mining company; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Future Energy Research Institute was officially established; The new Dongfeng Honda electric vehicle factory will be located in Wuhan and officially put into operation in 2024; Metal cobalt is quoted at 497000 yuan / ton, this week + 1.2%, nickel at 154300 yuan / ton, this week + 0.4%, manganese at 43000 yuan / ton, this week + 9.6%, metal lithium at 1.5 million yuan / ton, this week + 1.4%, battery grade lithium carbonate at 300400 yuan / ton, this week + 8.3%, lithium hydroxide at 244400 yuan / ton, this week + 8.7%, lithium cobalt cathode at 440000 yuan / ton, this week + 4.1%, The quotation of Sanyuan 622 cathode is 270500 yuan / ton, this week + 1.9%, that of Sanyuan 811 cathode is 287500 yuan / ton, this week + 1.8%, that of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 110500 yuan / ton, this week + 11.6%, and that of lfp-pvdf is 565000 yuan / ton, this week + 9.7%. New energy: five ministries and commissions including the Ministry of industry and information technology: comprehensively promote the intelligent photovoltaic system on residential roofs and break through the key technologies of intelligent optical storage; The State Grid announced the list of the 24th batch of renewable energy power generation subsidy projects in 2021, of which the photovoltaic scale is 877.61mw; Support the pilot areas to improve the power market trading mechanism; Build Jinchang, Zhangye and Wuwei ten million kilowatt wind and electricity base, and Gansu Province issued the energy development plan of the 14th five year plan; The investment in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials is 303.66 billion yuan; Monocrystalline silicon material this week was 230 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The quotation of single crystal silicon wafer 166 / 182 / 210mm is 4.95/5.85/8 yuan / piece, which is flat / + 0.86% / flat month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery was 1.05 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc module is 1.83 yuan / W, with a month on month ratio of – 1.08%; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 25 / 19.2 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: shipment of industrial control enterprises in December: 210 million servo Yaskawa, a year-on-year increase of – 16%; Panasonic 170 million, yoy + 5%, delta 120 million, yoy + 9%, Hechuan 34 million, yoy + 10%; Low voltage inverter ABB shipped 240 million, a year-on-year increase of – 5%, and Yaskawa 100 million, a year-on-year increase of + 2%; Medium and large PLC Schneider 90 million, a year-on-year increase of + 6%.
Company level: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) : 1) the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 to be RMB 890 million to RMB 920 million, an increase of 399.58% – 418.31% at the same time; 2) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) it is expected to purchase about 100000 tons of high nickel ternary cathode materials from the company in 2022; From 2023 to the end of 2025, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will take the company as the first supplier of ternary cathode powder and purchase high nickel ternary cathode materials from the company; Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) : the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8-8.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 122% – 136% at the same time; Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) : it is planned to build a new phosphate cathode material production base with an annual output of 330000 tons in Qujing, with a total investment of about 7.5 billion yuan; Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) : the third phase of employee stock ownership plan, with raised funds ≤ 400 million yuan and a lock-in period of 12 months; China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) : in 2021, the power generation will be 182.637 billion kwh, an increase of 24.787 billion kwh, + 18.61%; The power generation target in 2022 is 196 billion kwh; Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 1.08-1.14 billion in 2021, an increase of 68.59% – 77.96% at the same time; Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) : the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 4.1-5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 435.00% – 552.44% at the same time; Shandong Shida Shenghua Chemical Group Company Limite(603026) : the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.17-1.25 billion in 2021, an increase of 350% – 381% at the same time; Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) : the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 566-666 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 10% – 30% at the same time.
Investment strategy: in December, the sales volume of China’s mainstream automobile enterprises continued to rise. We expect the overall sales volume to exceed 500000 vehicles, the annual sales volume to exceed 3.5 million vehicles, 1.95 million vehicles in Europe, nearly 650000 vehicles in the United States, and a total of more than 6 million vehicles in the world; In the new car cycle in 2022, the global sales volume exceeded 9 million, an increase of 50% +. In terms of the industrial chain, although the price of lithium carbonate is upward, the downstream leaders have stable procurement channels, which can basically meet the demand. In January 2022, the production scheduling continued to increase by 5% month on month. In 2022q1, the off-season was not light, and the month on month was flat. Throughout the year, battery enterprises generally reported that orders were full and nearly doubled. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, lithium, graphitization, PVDF, diaphragm and copper foil continue to be tense. We expect it to continue until 2022. In 2022, the volume and profit will still rise; In the battery segment, the price will be renegotiated in Q4 in 2021. We expect that the price increase will be strong. Some second-line battery enterprises have adjusted the price by 10%. We expect that the leader is expected to follow. Therefore, the profitability of the battery segment will hit the bottom in mid-2022; Meanwhile, the battery technology route will continue to upgrade in 2022, and 4680 and lithium manganese iron phosphate are expected to start mass production, driving the upgrading of the industrial chain; In terms of valuation, the leader in 2022 is generally 30-40 times. Our performance doubled in 2022 and continues to be optimistic. We strongly recommend the global leader in the middle reaches of lithium battery and the leader in lithium resources. The importance and commitment of China, Europe and the United States to carbon emissions will accelerate the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to main energy. However, the excessive rise of silicon material has increased the cost pressure, the quotation of components exceeds 2 yuan / W, and the production scheduling and market demand of components are challenged in the short term. In the short term, the price of silicon wafers has loosened, indicating that the negative feedback from the downstream has been transmitted upward to silicon wafers. We expect silicon wafers to take the lead in reducing prices to promote the upward production scheduling. China has gradually built up n supporting policies centered on 3060, further built a “1 + n” policy system, and promoted the development of centralized and distributed markets by large scenic base + the whole county. From 2022 to 2023, it will form a scale of about 180gw. The opinions on carbon peak and carbon neutralization have been officially released. The “1 + n” policy system has been gradually improved, and the photovoltaic policy of the United States continues to improve, We expect that the installed capacity will be 150-155gw in 2021, with an increase of 20% at the same time, and it is expected to exceed 45% + growth in 2022. At the same time, the tou policy will further promote the development of distribution and energy storage, and we are optimistic about the growth of high-quality photovoltaic leaders.
The new power system brings structural opportunities. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we expect the total investment in power grid to increase steadily. However, in order to solve the problems of large-scale access to new energy, changes in load structure and large penetration of power electronic equipment, the investment in power grid will focus on the direction of grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization and pumped storage, which will bring new opportunities. The growth space is opened under the background of wind power carbon neutralization. The domestic substitution of industrial control continues, and the leader is always strong.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power battery, global high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantage), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (general automation continues to exceed market expectations and comprehensive breakthrough in power assembly), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader in monocrystalline silicon chips and components and strong comprehensive strength), Byd Company Limited(002594) (sales of electric vehicles continue to exceed market expectations and external supply of blade batteries accelerates) Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader of inverter and forward-looking layout of energy storage), Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (secondary equipment leader and power Internet of things benefit), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader of negative electrode and diaphragm coating leader), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader of wet diaphragm with strong profitability) Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers, high-volume increase period), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel cathode leader, high-capacity release period), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (iron and lithium demand supermarket expectation, profit inflection point), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader, new lithium salt leader), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (electrolyte leader and fluorine chemical exceed market expectation) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary precursor, high-quality and rapid production expansion of customers), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (leader of carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (leader of cobalt salt and positive precursor), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (global leader of new and old relays, supermarket expectation in 2021), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (leader of series inverter, high performance growth) Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (integrated component leader, profit elasticity in 2022 can be expected), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (silicon and perc battery leader, profit exceeding market expectations), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (EVA and Poe leader, photosensitive dry film loading), Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , company 9, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) 。 It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , etc.
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
