Core individual stock portfolio: recently recommended Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) , Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) , Hunan Baili Engineering Sci & Tech Co.Ltd(603959) , Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Hangjin Technology Co.Ltd(000818) etc.
Special research this week: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , LG new energy and other battery plants outside China accelerate the expansion of production. It is estimated that the total planned production capacity will be about 3twh in 2025, with an increase of more than 2twh compared with 2021. The growth of lithium battery equipment sector is highly deterministic. The production process of lithium battery includes three steps: electrode manufacturing, cell assembly and post-treatment (activating cell). Post treatment is the key step of lithium battery manufacturing process. The rear equipment has high customer stickiness and strong profitability; The value of equipment in the rear section accounts for about 30%. Therefore, it can be estimated that the average annual demand for equipment in the rear section from 2021 to 2025 exceeds 30 billion yuan. Since November 2021, the lithium battery equipment sector has been adjusted to a certain extent. We believe that the current valuation of high-quality targets in the industry has been adjusted to a relatively reasonable level. With the gradual approach of the performance disclosure period, from order driven valuation to high profit growth, the demand of the superimposed industry continues to increase rapidly, and high-quality companies in the relevant industrial chain are optimistic about ushering in a new era. The following two ideas can be used to screen the target equipment: 1) expand the flexible battery supply chain, such as Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , China National Electric Apparatus Research Institute Co.Ltd(688128) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ; 2) Expand to the non battery part of the energy storage system with electronic technology, lithium energy storage two wheel drive, such as Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Hnac Technology Co.Ltd(300490) .
Key tracking industries:
Lithium battery equipment resonates with the global production capacity cycle. It is expected that the demand will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025. Chinese equipment companies have obvious advantages and are fully optimistic about the first and second tier leaders with advantages in technology, products and scale;
For photovoltaic equipment, the iterative upgrading of equipment promotes the cost reduction of the industrial chain, and the penetration rate of hjt increases rapidly. At the same time, the decline in the price of photovoltaic raw materials is expected to stimulate downstream demand, and we are optimistic about the leaders of battery chips and module equipment;
Energy storage: energy storage is the necessary foundation for building a new power grid. Policies are favorable, power generation and user side promote the prosperity of the industry, and are optimistic about leading companies in battery, inverter, integration and other links;
Semiconductor equipment is expected to meet us industry demand in 2030, reaching US $140 billion. Chinese mainland accounts for a larger share but the localization rate is still low. We hope that the platform companies and domestic alternatives will soon break through.
Automation, industrial consumables with a wide range of downstream applications, with a market scale of about 40 billion, which is expected to reach 55.7 billion yuan in 2026. It is optimistic about the industry leaders benefiting from the improvement of concentration and import substitution;
Hydrogen energy and green hydrogen meet the requirements of carbon neutralization. The rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power lays the foundation for photovoltaic hydrogen production and wind power hydrogen production. We are optimistic about the leading companies with the advantages of green hydrogen industrial chain integration;
For construction machinery, it is expected that the industry sales volume Q4 will have a negative year-on-year growth, and the strong will always be strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the industry leaders and be optimistic about the complete machine and parts companies with product, scale and cost advantages.
