\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (002191)
Key investment points
Chang Yi technology is China's HNB flavor and spice leader.
Changyi technology focuses on the flavor and flavor of tobacco fields, the production and technology development of new functional materials. Its main products are HNB flavors and flavors for heating cigarettes, new materials for HNB heating cigarettes, and related supporting materials and technical services. It has good sales channels and stock business in its business system. It has 15 patents, including 5 invention patents, including "a double cooling particle" for HNB cooling section, and has strong R & D ability.
The territory of new tobacco continues to expand, extending from cigarette sets to consumables
In 18-20 years, the company's new tobacco layout focused on cigarette sets. The subsidiary Jinjia technology produced HNB cigarette sets and atomized electronic cigarette sets, mainly providing atomized electronic cigarette OEM services for many well-known brands such as suorin and gippro. In 18 years, Jinjia technology and Yunnan China Tobacco jointly established Jiayu technology, which did not contract HNB cigarette sets under Yunnan China tobacco, In August 18, the company established a joint venture with MIWU technology, a Xiaomi ecological chain enterprise. YINWEI Technology launched its own brand of foogo. In the 21 year, the company gradually began to lay out supplies. In June, Indonesia's Indonesian cloud parent river was set up. In September, the industrial fund was set up to invest in tobacco supporting industry, new packaging materials and new tobacco industry. It was invested in 10 million 590 thousand yuan by Xiang Yun Shuo technology in November. The Changyi technology company has further perfected the layout of HNB flavors and fragrances.
In 22 years, the traditional cigarette label business is expected to bottom up, and the new tobacco policy is expected to release dividends. Looking forward to 22 years, the company is expected to improve the cigarette label market share through active bidding, and the business will bottom out. At the same time, the high-quality cigarette box in the large packaging business continues to develop, the 3C packaging growth recovers, and the wine packaging business increases the number of high-end customers. In recent years, the company has successively cooperated with Maotai and other high-end wine enterprises, In the future, the business scale will be further expanded by taking shares in wine bag enterprises, and the traditional business margin will be better on the whole. The implementation of the new tobacco HNB policy in 22 years is expected to release the growth dividend of the industry, the overseas demand continues to boom, the business volume in 21 years is nearly 200 million yuan, and it is expected to more than double the growth in 22 years.
Profit forecast and valuation
In September, the company launched the equity incentive plan. According to the performance target, the company's compound growth rate in 21-23 years reached 23%, with abundant development confidence. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 51.32/66.67/8648 billion yuan in 21-23 years, an increase of 22.44% / 29.91% / 29.71%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.075/12.86/1593 billion yuan, an increase of 30.56% / 19.62% / 23.85%, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 22.00/18.39/14.85x, The layout of the company's new-type tobacco has been gradually improved, the valuation can be improved in the future, and the "buy" rating will be maintained.
Risk tips
New tobacco policy risks, sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, epidemic situation affecting product sales, etc.
