\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Event overview
The company released the production and sales express in December 2021: the wholesale sales volume in December was 162000, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.17% and a month on month increase of + 32.54%; The annual cumulative sales volume was 1.281 million, a year-on-year increase of + 15.24%.
By brand, in December, the wholesale sales volume of Harvard brand was 94400, with a year-on-year increase of – 10.52% and a month on month increase of + 36.46%; The wholesale sales volume of wey brand was 10100, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.34% and a month on month increase of + 60.12%; The wholesale sales volume of Euler brand was 20900, with a year-on-year increase of + 64.19% and a month on month increase of + 29.69%; The wholesale sales volume of pickup trucks was 25000, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.70% and a month on month increase of + 20.29%; The wholesale sales volume of tank brand was 12000, a month on month increase of + 18.30%.
Analysis and judgment:
The response of DHT on the accelerated latte was better than expected
The core shortage was alleviated month by month, and the sales volume continued to increase month on month. In December, the company sold 162369 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 32.54%, and produced 162960 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 30.87%. The sales volume of the company’s five core brands improved month on month. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of wey brand increased by 60.12% month on month, and the wholesale sales volume of Harvard brand increased by 36.46% month on month, leading the growth rate. Specifically,
Harvard brand: consolidate the mainstream SUV market and accelerate the progress towards intelligence. In December, the sales volume was 94387, with a month on month increase of 36.46%. The annual cumulative sales volume was 770008, with a year-on-year increase of 2.64%. Among them, 42787 Haval H6 vehicles were sold, with a month on month increase of 31.88%, achieving a high growth. Harvard beast (new technology flagship SUV) delivered nearly 7000 vehicles in the first month of listing, demonstrating the potential of explosion. Haver beast and red rabbit have been listed one after another, continuously expanding haver product matrix, consolidating the mainstream SUV market and accelerating the progress towards intelligence.
Wey brand: PHEV version is accelerated. In December, 10065 vehicles were sold, with a strong increase of 60.12% month on month. In the whole year, 58363 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.65%. In 2021, WeiPai ushered in a new product period, with a total of 28545 mocha; Macchiato DHT climbed steadily, with a cumulative sales volume of 5145 vehicles; Latte DHT integrates intelligent technology and efficient power, and is expected to become the backbone of the coffee family. In only half a month after listing, the sales volume of latte DHT has been 2707, and the market response has exceeded expectations. In January this year, mocha dht-phev also officially opened pre-sale. With the accelerated launch of PHEV versions of many models, we expect Wei brand to usher in a stronger product cycle.
Euler brand: ASP is expected to accelerate the upward trend. In December, the sales volume was 20926, with a month on month increase of 29.69%. The annual cumulative sales volume was 135028, with a year-on-year increase of 140.0%. Among them, the sales volume of “good cat” in December was 10685, a month on month increase of 20.67%, and the annual sales volume was 50931. This year, new members of many cat families such as ballet cat, punk cat and lightning cat are expected to be listed, and the product matrix is moving towards high-end. We expect ASP to accelerate the upward trend.
Tank brand: Tank 500 will be delivered soon. 11958 tanks were delivered in December, an increase of 18.3% month on month, a new high in monthly delivery. 84588 vehicles were delivered throughout the year, accounting for more than 50% of the market share in China’s off-road vehicle market. Meanwhile, the pre-sale of tank 500 was officially opened at Guangzhou auto show. Considering the high-end pricing of 335000 ~ 395000 new cars, the pre-sale performance exceeded the market expectation, and it is expected that Q1 will be delivered.
Great Wall pickup: the globalization of pickup in China is accelerating. In December, 25033 vehicles were sold, with a month on month increase of 20.29%. In the whole year, 233006 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Among them, 43599 vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 119%. In December, 15117 Great Wall guns were sold, reaching a new high. In 2021, Great Wall cannon was listed in more than 50 countries and regions such as Australia, Chile and South Africa, fully opening the first year of China’s pickup truck globalization.
A number of new high-end intelligent electric products will be launched soon
Salon Zhixing, a new independent auto company incubated by Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , also officially appeared at the 2021 Guangzhou auto show, and launched the “mecha technology category” and the first high-performance mecha and running machine Jialong. At the auto show, the global limited edition of mechatron was opened for pre-sale, and 101 Global Limited Edition were booked and sold out in 3 hours. It is expected that the mass production model will be launched in Q2 this year and will be delivered in Q3.
In 2022, new and modified models of various brands have been launched one after another. In terms of tank and salon brands, tank 500 is expected to be delivered in Q1, and the mass production version of mechatron will also be launched and delivered within the year; In terms of wey brand, mocha PHEV and latte PHEV will be on the market soon; Euler cat is moving towards high-end, including ballet cat, punk cat, lightning cat and other new members of the cat family, which are expected to be listed; Haval and pickup truck also have new model reserves.
Investment advice
The promotion of the company’s new products outside China is progressing smoothly, the new cycle of intelligent electrification has been started, the proportion of new energy intelligent models has increased rapidly, the leading position of luxury has become clearer, and the non vehicle business income is expected to accelerate the release. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 142.05/167.33/186.07 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 105.2/137.3/16.51 billion yuan, EPS is 1.14/1.49/1.79 yuan (diluted circulation of equity incentive restricted shares), corresponding to the closing price of 45.17 yuan / share on January 7, 2022, and PE is 40 / 30 / 25 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The impact of core failure exceeds expectations; Downside risk of auto market; The market competition of wey, salon, Haval and other brands intensifies, and the sales volume is lower than expected; The progress of going to sea was not as expected.
