\u3000\u3000 Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) (600893)
Key investment points
The company issued the announcement of related party transactions in 2022: the actual amount of related party sales and related party procurement in 2021 increased by 42% / 32% respectively. The estimated amount of related sales and related procurement in 2022 will increase by 26% / 34% respectively.
The actual amount of related sales in 2021 is expected to increase by 42% year-on-year, and the annual revenue growth is expected to accelerate
1) the actual amount of related party sales in 2021 is expected to be 16.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 42%, and 2020 (11.6 billion) is expected to be 35% higher than 2019 (8.6 billion); The actual amount of related party procurement is expected to be 15.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32%, and 2020 (11.8 billion) is only 3% higher than 2019 (11.5 billion).
2) the year-on-year growth rate of related sales and related procurement has accelerated, and the growth rate of related procurement is large, indicating that the growth of business scale and operating revenue in 2021 is also expected to accelerate. 3) In 2021, the actual amount of related party procurement deviated from the estimated amount at the beginning of the year by about – 2.8%, and the actual amount of related party sales deviated from the estimated amount at the beginning of the year by about 0.8%. The overall deviation is small.
The related sales in 2022 will increase by 26% compared with the actual amount in 2021, and the company’s revenue will continue to grow rapidly
1) in 2022, the estimated related sales amount is 20.7 billion, an increase of 26% over the actual amount of 16.5 billion in 2021, and the estimated related procurement amount is 21 billion, an increase of 34% over the actual amount of 15.6 billion in 2021, indicating that the company’s revenue will continue to grow rapidly in 2022.
2) in 2021, the amount of connected transactions has been increased twice on the basis of the estimated amount at the beginning of the year, and the amount of connected transactions in 2022 is also expected to be increased on the basis of the current announcement according to the actual business demand.
The military industry sector has entered a two wheel drive sweet period of “business cycle + asset integration” and continued to recommend
1) the national defense industry has a high growth certainty. In 2022, it will enter a two wheel drive sweet period of “business cycle + asset integration” and “endogenous + extension”. In the follow-up, “domestic demand + foreign trade” and “military products + civilian products”, the military industry index is expected to replicate the performance of the wind power index in the second half of 2021 in 2022, and the latter is in the top.
2) we are optimistic about the missile / information / air launch / military aircraft sub industry and continue to recommend national defense hosts with high performance flexibility in the next five years: Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) / Avicopter Plc(600038) / Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) / Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) / Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) / Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) .
3) continue to be optimistic about the middle and upper reaches segments with high technical barriers, high scarcity and good competition pattern: superalloy / composite materials / midstream component level supporting enterprises / engine forging castings / information core midstream, etc.
Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) : it is expected that the compound growth rate of performance in the next three years will be 29%, which will continue to be recommended
1) military distribution is an urgent need for national defense construction, and developer development is an inevitable choice for industrial upgrading. Hangfa high-quality track will have a compound growth rate of 15% in the next 15 years. The company is the double leader of “complete machine / maintenance” of aviation development, and the only manufacturer of many main models of military development. It will deeply participate in commercial development supporting facilities and benefit from long-term and certainty.
2) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.49/18.8/2.47 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 30% / 26% / 31% and a compound growth rate of 29%. PE is 101 / 80 / 61 times and PS is 4.3 / 3.5 / 2.8 times. Continuous recommendation.
Risk warning: the delivery of military orders is less than expected; The progress of model development is less than expected.
