\u3000\u3000 Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) (002043)
Traditional plate leaders, channel sinking drives large-scale income, high undervalued value and remarkable dividend characteristics
Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) is a leader in the traditional plate industry. In 2010, it began to try OEM and asset light mode to obtain rapid growth in revenue. After 2018, it will carry out channel layout and sinking, promote the easy to install mode at the retail end, quickly layout the home customization finished product market, and vigorously promote small b-end such as tooling, home decoration and furniture factory at the industrial channel end to promote the recovery of traditional plate business, The revenue of 21q1-3 decorative plate was + 72% year-on-year, and the traditional plate business recovered. In 2019, it acquired Qingdao Yufeng Hantang, cut into the big B channel of the real estate developer, and established a regional sales branch. Recently, the company announced a new phase of equity incentive plan. According to the incentive target, the compound growth rate of deduction of non performance in the next three years is 20.5%. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 760 / 7.9 / 960 million in 21-23 years, and the current market value corresponds to the valuation level of 22-23 years, which is 10.91/9.02 times, In addition, the company announced that the annual cumulative profit distributed in cash from 22 to 24 years should not be less than 50% of the company's distributable profit in that year. The improvement of dividend rate will help to improve the long-term investment value.
Develop easy to wear, provide one-stop solutions, and enter the finished home market differently
The development of wood-based panel industry is generally stable. Plywood is the largest consumer category, accounting for more than 60%. The output value of household plywood industry is about 250 billion, Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) accounting for less than 5%. Facing the two major trends of fine decoration and customization, the company develops the easy-to-wear mode. After several years of incubation, The easy-to-wear mode has gradually extended from the basic cabinet processing to the sales of hardware and other supporting products. Now it is the mode of 10000 stores. All orders are placed with the company, and the company is assigned to the processing center. After processing, the plates are ready. The installation service is provided by the processing center. The dealers should be equipped with designers for on-site measurement and design. In 2020, the company will open 350 new easy-to-wear stores, More than 50 cooperative processing centers have been signed, and easy to wear has entered the stage of rapid development. From the perspective of business model, the volume of easy to wear business will financially drive the volume of income from the existing decorative plate and other auxiliary materials business (increase of material customer unit price).
Acquire Yufeng Hantang and create a two wheel drive strategy of "retail + engineering"
Yufeng Hantang, focusing on the customization of wood furniture in the whole house, entered the Vanke system in 2008 and won the first batch of " China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) " suppliers in 2013. Later, Yufeng Hantang signed strategic cooperation agreements with a number of real estate customers by virtue of products and services. By the end of 2020, the company has cooperated with 37 strategic customers of real estate groups, including 16 of the top 30 real estate, with obvious head effect of real estate developers. In terms of customer structure, 21h1 Vanke 45.74%, rongchuang 15.7%, Longhu 11.14%, Dongyuan real estate 6.25%, Xincheng 5.87% and Xuhui 4.32%. The proportion of real estate customers other than Vanke has gradually increased. At present, its brand "Youfei" home has four production bases: Chengyang, Jimo, Zhucheng and Deqing, with an annual production capacity of 550000 sets. Later, with the production base of Liuting put into operation in 2022, the total annual production capacity is expected to reach 850000 sets. The release of production capacity is expected to support the development of business. Subsequently, Yufeng Han and Tang Dynasties gradually integrated Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) flooring, wooden doors and plates, and the Industrial Synergy gradually became prominent.
The transformation and upgrading of traditional plate leaders can be expected, covered for the first time, and given a "buy" rating
We are optimistic about the driving effect of easy loading mode and channel sinking on the traditional plate business. At the same time, Yufeng Hantang provides increment for the company's big b-end business, and the Industrial Synergy is expected to deepen. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 760 / 790 / 960 million in 21-23 years. Referring to the average pe13x of comparable companies in 2022 (wind consensus expectation), we believe that the company can be given a 22-year 16xpe level, corresponding to the target price of RMB 17.02. It is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the development of easy to install mode is less than expected, the sales of plate is less than expected, the price of raw materials is under great pressure, and the risk of goodwill impairment.
