Beiteri (835185)
Main cathode and high nickel cathode, translational listed on the Beijing stock exchange or welcome valuation repair. Founded in 2000, the company ranked first in negative electrode shipment in the world in 2010, listed on the new third board in 15 years, realized mass shipment of ternary positive electrode in 16 years, batch shipment of silicon-based negative electrode in 13 and 14 years, promoted to the selected layer of the new third board in 20 years, and was listed on the Beijing stock exchange in November 21. Negative pole highlight 1: the products cover natural, man-made and silicon base. The integrated production capacity is accelerated, the customer structure is high-quality, and the future production capacity is transformed into shipment with high certainty.
The integrated production capacity is accelerated and the volume is flexible. Since 2013, the company's negative electrode shipment has ranked first in the world for 8 consecutive years, and 21q1-3 ranks first in China (24%). Up to now, the total planned capacity of negative electrode is 530000 tons (equity 37), and the total planned capacity of graphitization is 340000 tons (equity 15). In 21 years, the effective equity capacity of negative electrode is 160000 tons and graphitization is 16000 tons. With the production of projects under construction, it is expected that the effective equity capacity of negative electrode will reach 310000 tons and 380000 tons in 22 / 23 years, and graphitization will reach 52000 tons and 109000 tons. In addition, the planned production capacity of needle coke is 120000 tons (equity 6.6).
High quality customer structure is the core target of overseas supply chain. Overseas mainstream battery factories are beiteri's customers, such as Panasonic, Samsung SDI and LG Chemical, which have cooperated with the company for nearly 10 years. We expect the company to be in the first supply position in Panasonic and Samsung SDI. Highlight 2: hold two new technologies to help the company increase efficiency and reduce cost.
Efficiency enhancement: the industrialization of silicon-based negative electrode is excellent and enjoys a high technology premium. Silicon carbon negative electrode will supply Samsung SDI for 13 years, and silicon oxygen negative electrode will supply Panasonic Tesla for 17 years. At present, the silicon-based production capacity is 3000 tons, and the net profit per ton is expected to be 65000 yuan, enjoying a high technology premium.
Cost reduction: the continuous graphitization technology can reduce the cost, and the cost is expected to be about 30% lower than that of the traditional process. Graphitization is the main cost of artificial negative electrode. Peers mostly reduce the cost by building bases in low electricity price areas and improving furnace loading. Beiteri has introduced continuous graphitization process. Since it is in the early stage of application, we speculate that it is mainly used for medium and low-end negative electrodes. It is expected that after the process is mature, the graphitization cost will be reduced by about 30% compared with the traditional process.
High nickel positive electrode: the capacity utilization rate is improved, and the customers are mainly overseas, which is expected to achieve both volume and profit. On the one hand, the release of production capacity is accelerated. We expect the company's effective equity production capacity to reach 33000 and 59000 tons in 22 and 23 years; On the other hand, high nickel has been certified by major customers Panasonic and ski.
Years of leading technology & customer structure comes from strong R & D capability. It has the first new energy technology industrialization research institute in China, has set up nine research centers, has nearly 400 R & D personnel, takes the lead in the R & D cost rate and R & D personnel, and has forward-looking research on new materials and new fields, such as sodium ion batteries. We expect beiteri to achieve revenue of 19.9 billion yuan and 25.5 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.7 billion yuan and 3.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 88% and 42%. Considering the high growth of the company in the next few years, we give beiteri a valuation of 40 times in 2022, corresponding to a market value of 108 billion yuan and a target price of 223 yuan / share. It is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the production capacity is less than expected, the negative electrode price decreases more than expected, the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the price rise of coke is more than expected, the calculation is subjective, and the change of governance is more than expected.
