[matters]
On April 11, the domestic game version number was reopened. Since the release of the version number on July 22 last year, the distribution of the domestic version number has been suspended for more than 8 months. A total of 45 game titles were distributed this time, including Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) dream voyage, G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) tower hunter, heart company's party star, Jinshan software sword net 3: origin, friendship time relic No. 0, Yoozoo Interactive Co.Ltd(002174) chronicles of the Three Kingdoms: Pocket battle, dream world, beware of fire and candle, baidu attacking rabbit, and Shenzhen Zqgame Co.Ltd(300052) caster.
[comments]
Since August 2021, the distribution of China's game edition numbers has been stopped, resulting in a double kill in the performance and valuation of game stocks. In terms of performance, new games (launched in recent 3 months) generally account for 10-12% of the number and flow of top 50 mobile games. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the number of new online mobile games has decreased significantly, which has a certain negative impact on the industry and the company's revenue. Taking Tencent China Mobile Games as an example, it has remained flat year-on-year since the second half of 2021, and the game version number and juvenile protection have inhibited growth. In terms of valuation, leading A-share game companies such as Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) etc. have a P / E ratio of about 15 times in 2022, and the historical average valuation is about 25 times. The suspension of game edition also inhibits the valuation. Overall, with the reopening of the version number, the manufacturers who obtain the game version number are expected to release new games within 1-2 months, resulting in performance contribution, and the game industry ushered in "double click".
Referring to the resumption of the game version number in 2018, the game industry index rebounded 23% from the short-term high from December 2018 to April 2019 and 60% from the long-term high in July 2020. The version number event has obvious catalysis. Compared tiktok, there are still some differences in the suspension of the tiktok in 2018: 1) the 2019 dividend buying impulse: the impact of the rise of the voice is the main channel of the game buying industry, and the revenue from the game company represented by Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) has increased significantly (+73%). After the restart of this round of edition number, the growth driving force at the industry level is slightly weak. 2) The number and content of games may be regulated more strictly: in 2018, the release of edition numbers was suspended, mainly because the industry lacked high-quality products and the content was rampant, so the number of edition numbers was regulated. A total of 45 game version numbers were distributed this time, which is less than the number distributed in the past, and the edition has more strict requirements for content. On the whole, under the environment of stricter version numbers, it is conducive to large game companies with long-term operation capacity and rich product reserves.
We believe that, first of all, due to the increase of new online games, game channel companies benefit the most; Suggestion: Tencent holdings, cautiously optimistic about: BiliBili, heart company. Secondly, leading companies with long-term operation ability also benefit; Watch out for ZuLong, watch carefully.
[risk tips]
Macroeconomic downside risk;
Policy supervision risk.
