Industry: the logic of passive capacity removal is smooth, and Q2 is expected to continue the trend of capacity removal
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the average selling price of pigs at the end of March was 12.23 yuan / kg, down 0.35 yuan / kg month on month; The average sales price of compound feed for fattening pigs was 3.80 yuan / kg, up 0.1 yuan / kg month on month. The profits and losses of self breeding and self feeding and outsourcing fattening heads were – 531.0 yuan / head and – 292.4 yuan / head respectively, and the loss range was enlarged by 49.3 yuan / head and 139.1 yuan / head respectively. The national development and Reform Commission’s pig grain price ratio is 3.49. Since mid February, the official pig grain price ratio has triggered a national level early warning. By the end of March, the central government has successively started the collection and storage of three batches of central reserve frozen pork, with a cumulative planned collection and storage volume of 118000 tons.
In terms of supply and demand changes, combined with the monitoring slaughter data of Yongyi consulting, the slaughter volume of monitoring samples in March was at a relatively high level. It is expected that a higher number of pigs will be sold from March to June 2022. On the consumer side, the covid-19 epidemic in China rose in March, and the short-term consumption pressure tended to increase, which exacerbated the contradiction of short-term oversupply in the industry. It is expected that the average sales price of pigs in 2022q2 industry will still be significantly suppressed by supply and consumption downturn.
From the perspective of industrial capacity, according to the agricultural and rural data, the number of fertile sows in the industry decreased by 0.5% month on month in February. It is expected that the number of fertile sows monitored by the Ministry of agriculture of the industry will still maintain a downward trend in March. We are optimistic about the extent of capacity removal from April to may 2022. On the one hand, we judge that in the later stage of capacity deregulation, the extent of passive deregulation is expected to intensify; On the other hand, based on the consistent expectation of reversal at the industrial end, the removal of industrial capacity is insufficient, which will prolong the time of industry bottom grinding and the time of bottom loss, which will aggravate the test of industry funds, or form a more extreme capacity game at the end of the bottom cycle, and the short-term removal range of capacity may exceed expectations.
Enterprises: the year-on-year change of pig slaughter volume of listed pig enterprises in March showed differentiation
As of April 12, 2022, 11 major listed pig breeding enterprises have released pig sales data in March. In March, listed pig breeding enterprises listed a total of 11.8 million pigs, an increase of 74% year-on-year. Among them, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) / 144.8/142.7/36.1/33.6/37.4/17.0/19.8398000 heads, with a year-on-year increase of 111.3% / 143.6% / 67.1% / 59.1% / 1.1% / 32.6% / 65.6% / 171.6% / 42.4% respectively Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) pig slaughter volume decreased month on month, with 96.7131000 pigs in March, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% / 11.6% respectively.
In terms of the importance of putting out weights, there are five main companies that announce the importance of putting out weights, with Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 157 theaverage weight of , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) commercial pigs is 119.5/103.6/111.4/113.9/118.2kg/head respectively, The month on month changes were + 2.1 / – 2.9 / + 2.7 / – 1.6 / – 10.1 kg / head respectively. In terms of industry, according to Yongyi consulting data, the average weight of pigs sold in China was 116.6kg/head, with a month on month increase of + 0.68kg/head. In terms of average sales price, the average sales price of commercial pigs of all enterprises in March ranged from 11.2-12.2 yuan / kg, with a year-on-year decrease of about 53%; There are seven major listed pig companies, seven of which are listed, and seven of the seven major listed pig companies. The average selling price of pig prices have all declined on a month on month basis. The average selling price of the average selling price of all the seven listed pig companies, including the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 714 11.5/11.7/11.2/11.9 yuan / kg, with a month on month change of – 6% / – 3% / + 2% / – 3% / – 2% / – 3% / – 0.3% respectively.
Risk tip: the prosperity of pig prices is lower than expected, and the decline of breeding costs of listed companies is lower than expected.
