Core view
Two week performance of the sector: in the past two weeks (202203.28202204.08), CSI 300 rose by 1.35%, gem index fell by 2.58%, and consumer service (CITIC) index rose by 1.82%. Compared with CSI 300, the relative income was 2.97%, ranking 11th among CITIC’s 29 sub industries. Among the molecular sectors, the tourism and leisure sector has increased by 2.08% in recent two weeks, the hotel and catering sector has increased by 2.40% in recent two weeks, the education sector has increased by 2.13% in recent two weeks, and the comprehensive service sector has decreased by 4.32% in recent two weeks.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: 1) in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest increase in share prices in the past two weeks are Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) / Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) / Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) / tengbang international / Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ; 2) In terms of capital inflows, capital inflows and capital outflows. In terms of the subject matter of Hong Kong stocks, Haidilao / Naixue tea / jiumaojiu in the past two weeks shows the inflow of funds going south, and sipping sipping shows the outflow of funds going south.
Tiktok: (1) jitter: domestic businesses are not allowed to engage in Hainan tax-free business; (2) New format of Cultural Tourism Performing Arts: Launch 1100 immersive projects and the innovative mode of “meta universe +”; (3) Proportion of city tour during Qingming holiday
Important announcements of a / H-share social service listed companies: (1) Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : the company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 11.339 billion yuan / + 14.56%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 100 million yuan / – 8.7%, a loss of 670 million yuan in the same period of last year and a basic income of 097 yuan / share. (2) China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) : the company issued the 2021 annual report, which showed that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 212331 million yuan, and the net loss in the same period of last year was 232 million yuan, turning losses into profits; The operating revenue was 8.635 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.76%; The basic earnings per share is 0.0293 yuan.
Investment proposal and investment object
The epidemic situation across the country is still severe this week. The number of newly diagnosed cases in Shanghai is still high, and has spread to Hangzhou, Guangzhou and other places. It is expected that it will still put great pressure on Residents’ travel and tourism in April and may. On the other hand, governments in many places have successively issued relief and support policies for the service industry. We believe that when the epidemic situation stabilizes, the market’s expectations for the adjustment of epidemic prevention policies in the future will still rise, The response of the underlying stock price may be ahead of the fundamental recovery.
Tax free sector: Recently, sporadic positive cases have occurred in Haikou and Sanya, and the epidemic prevention policy adopted by Hainan government is relatively decisive. Sanya China free Haitangwan duty-free city and hailv duty-free city have not resumed business since April 2. Since March, the disturbance time of this round of epidemic to performance has been prolonged again, but the epidemic has continued repeatedly for more than a month, and the discount in China free Hainan has not increased significantly compared with February. It is confirmed again that the company is based on the long-term Determination and determination to protect profits. At present, the market value of the company has dropped to about 320 billion. If the epidemic situation improves in the future, the company will dominate the whole offline service industry in terms of short-term performance flexibility and growth space. We once again emphasize the bottom allocation opportunity of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ( China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , overweight) caused by the short-term epidemic, and we suggest to actively grasp it.
Hotels and scenic spots: in the short-term dimension, the impact of this round of epidemic on Residents’ travel may be greater than the previous rebound. It is suggested to pay attention to the post callback allocation opportunities of Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , buy), Huazhu group-s (01179, not rated), Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , buy), China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ( China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , buy). In the long-term dimension, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization of supply pattern and leading growth of the hotel industry. Several rounds of outbreaks have disturbed the pace of recovery, but the leader continues to open stores rapidly, single hotels continue to be cleared, and the logic of supply pattern optimization continues to be verified. China’s hotel chain rate and industry concentration still have great room for improvement compared with developed countries. We continue to be optimistic about the growth brought by the opening of leading hotels against the trend and the upgrading of medium and high-end hotels.
Catering: with the spread of the epidemic, the operation of catering brands has been damaged. The degree of damage can be considered from two aspects: store closure and passenger flow decline. Among them, the impact of store closure is related to the proportion of stores in areas with serious epidemic, the number of days closed, the normal operation level of closed stores and the brand’s sensitivity to the epidemic (brands with heavy category entertainment attributes, centralized shopping malls and other high potential energy points are greatly affected); The average daily turnover of stores in the camp is related to the structure of brand stores (the sinking point of low-line cities and high-line cities not affected by the epidemic is less damaged). Considering that Taier accounts for a large proportion of stores in Shenzhen and Shanghai, the stores closed under the epidemic are high-level stores with large average daily turnover, and the overall stores are dominated by high potential energy points in high-speed cities (the main control area of this round of epidemic). The epidemic damage of this brand in March was relatively large, but its same store performance in March was stable and exceeded expectations, reflecting the company’s strong brand strength, store efficiency and operation robustness, Since the core competitiveness has been verified again, it is recommended to pay attention to jiumaojiu (09922, not rated). At the same time, hellens (09869, not rated) is in the period of brand rise, positioning high potential night entertainment scenes, and it is suggested to pay attention to low-level layout opportunities.
Risk tips
Systemic risks, sudden factors, individual stock mergers and acquisitions do not meet expectations, etc
