The national standing committee will support the consumption of durable goods and relax the real estate policy in many places. As of April 8, the home appliance index (Shenwan) fell 2.5% this month, underperforming the Wande all a index by 0.5pcts. Last week, Premier Li Keqiang presided over a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing that policies and measures should be strengthened in advance and in due time, and those that have been issued should be implemented in place as soon as possible, making it clear that those to be launched should be put into place as early as possible; The meeting proposed that the corresponding financial support policies should be studied for the consumption of durable consumer goods and consumers who have difficulty in repaying loans affected by the epidemic. In terms of real estate, the list of deregulation has been expanding. Last week, cities such as Lanzhou, Gansu, Mianyang, Sichuan, Lishui, Zhejiang and Taizhou, Zhejiang continued to introduce deregulation policies to varying degrees. Looking ahead, we expect that the loose tone may continue, the steady growth policy will continue to work, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the changes in the future prosperity of the industry.
In terms of home appliance fundamentals, we selected 17 home appliance stocks as the research object. Their overall ROE (TTM) has been in a downward channel since the peak in the mid-18 years. The ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 20 years was the lowest value of 17%, and then rebounded. As of 21, the ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 21 years has rebounded to 21%, still 23% lower than the historical average (2014 first quarterly report – 2021 third quarterly report). Looking forward to 2022q2, the profit recovery + low valuation of the household appliance sector, and the better allocation time point is approaching. (1) Profit recovery: the steady growth policy continued to work, and the demand side of household appliances gradually stabilized; In terms of cost, the rising trend of raw material prices has slowed down, the superposition base has increased, and the upstream cost pressure has decreased marginally in 22 years. (2) Low valuation: the overall PE valuation of core household appliance stocks relative to the market has been lower than the historical average. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: (1) traditional leaders benefiting from fundamental recovery, focusing on Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ; (2) Pay attention to Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) , equity reform catalysis + laser TV volume + products going abroad; (3) Emerging household appliances with high prosperity include Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) .
Fundamentals: the steady growth policy continues to work, and white electricity retail has warmed up
Real estate data: from January to February, the sales area of new houses was – 9.6% year-on-year, and real estate sales continued to fluctuate at a low level. From January to February 2022, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 9.6% compared with the same period in 2021. Specifically, the first and second tier cities fell significantly year-on-year, while the sales of commercial housing in the third and fourth tier cities are gradually stabilizing. Although the current policy level has made more positive statements, it still takes time for the confidence of the industry to recover. At present, real estate enterprises and home buyers are generally in a wait-and-see state, resulting in the downturn of real estate sales and investment in the second half of 21 years. Looking to the future, we believe that real estate sales and investment may continue to bottom out, and under the main tone of this year’s “steady growth” policy, a wider range of easing policies is expected to come.
Production and sales of household appliances: (1) air conditioners: in terms of delivery, 9.69 million household air conditioners (YoY + 10.6%) were shipped in February, of which 3.84 million were sold domestically (YoY + 4.1%). Due to the disturbance of the Spring Festival holiday and the continuous force of the steady growth policy, the domestic sales of air conditioners became positive year-on-year; In February, 5.85 million air conditioners (YoY + 15.3%) were exported, which increased significantly year-on-year, and the absolute volume remained high. Retail end: the volume / volume of air-conditioning omni-channel retail sales in February was + 78% / + 105% year-on-year, and + 25% / + 21% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. Under the condition of continuous efforts of stable growth policy, air-conditioning retail sales picked up rapidly. In terms of price, the average price of the industry has been positive year-on-year since 20q4, and the online / offline price maintained growth in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 15% / + 12% respectively; (2) Chef electricity: in February, the omni-channel retail volume / volume of range hood was + 17% / + 42% year-on-year, and + 4% / + 20% year-on-year; (3) Refrigerators & washing machines: the volume / volume of refrigerators in February was – 13% / – 17% year-on-year, up + 9% / + 5% year-on-year; the retail volume / volume of washing machines in February was + 4% / + 8% year-on-year, up + 8% / + 13% year-on-year. (4) Clean appliances: in February, the sales volume / volume of all channels of clean appliances were – 17% / – 7% year-on-year, the online retail volume / volume were – 17% / – 7% year-on-year, the offline retail volume / volume was – 19% / – 9% year-on-year, and the volume / volume of all channels was + 17% / + 41% year-on-year.
Risk analysis: real estate sales are less than expected; The cost of raw materials has risen sharply; The local currency appreciated sharply.
