PMI fell, the manufacturing industry was under short-term pressure affected by the epidemic, and the decline in excavator sales expanded in March. Affected by the epidemic and the international situation, the prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell anti seasonally in March. In March, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.7pcts month on month, falling below the boom and bust line for the first time since November last year. Recently, under the dual impact of geopolitical factors such as the rebound of the epidemic in many parts of the country and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the downward pressure on China's economy has increased. From the production side, some enterprises stopped production due to the epidemic, which superimposed the adverse effects of the rise of raw materials, and the production and operation of enterprises were dragged down; From the demand side, the epidemic prevention and control measures have been tightened, consumer demand has decreased, and export orders have decreased due to the geopolitical situation; We believe that the manufacturing industry is under great pressure due to the impact of the epidemic in the short term. In terms of infrastructure real estate chain, from the data of excavator, the sales volume in March was 37000 units (- 53.1%), and the cumulative sales volume was 77000 units (- 39.2%), with a large decline, but the export sales volume still maintained a high growth rate due to the influence of low base.
The national development and Reform Commission issued the medium and long-term plan for hydrogen energy, and the development of hydrogen energy industry was accelerated. On March 23, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry, which defined that hydrogen energy is the key direction of strategic emerging industries. The development goal is to have about 50000 fuel cell vehicles by 2025, and deploy and build a number of hydrogen refueling stations. Policies drive the development of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy, and equipment and core parts need to be replaced by domestic products. At present, China's hydrogen energy industry is in the early stage of development. Compared with the international advanced level, there are still problems such as weak industrial innovation ability, low level of technical equipment, and dependence on import of some key core parts and basic materials. It is necessary to promote the innovative development of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy "production, storage and transmission" and tap investment opportunities.
The mass production conversion efficiency of hjt has exceeded 26%, the industry leaders have laid out a new generation of high-efficiency battery capacity, and the renewal iteration of photovoltaic equipment is expected to be accelerated Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) combined with sundrive, an Australian company, using the mass production process, the up conversion efficiency of full-size single crystal heterojunction battery reached 26.07%, which was further improved by 0.53pct compared with last September, realizing a new breakthrough in the mass production technology of heterojunction. Recently, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) and other leaders in the photovoltaic industry have successively released plans for production expansion to deeply layout a new generation of high-efficiency batteries. Heterojunction, TOPCON and other cell technologies have been iterated rapidly and the efficiency has been continuously improved, which is expected to accelerate the iterative upgrading of photovoltaic equipment.
Investment suggestion: after the beginning of 2022, in order to cope with the downward pressure of the economy, the steady growth policy will continue to increase. Steady growth focuses on steady investment, and the starting point is expected to fall on infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment. The impact on the mechanical equipment sector is mainly in the following five aspects: (1) moderately advanced infrastructure, stable rail transit investment and smooth economic demand, and urban rail construction deserves attention; (2) The construction of energy base, the installation of wind power photovoltaic can be expected, and the equipment end can benefit from acceleration; (3) The sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased greatly, and the investment prospect of equipment in the charging and replacement industry chain is broad; (4) Under the background of "double carbon", the demand for low-carbon transformation of traditional industries starts; (5) Special support for small and medium-sized enterprises to promote investment
Risk tip: the risk that the manufacturing investment is lower than expected and the policy support is lower than expected.
