Key investment points:
Market review: in March 2022, the pharmaceutical and biological (Shenwan) sector increased by 5.51%, ranking fifth among the 28 first-class industries of Shenwan. As of April 10, 2022, the average PE (TTM, overall method) of the pharmaceutical and biological sector was 27.96 times, which was in the lower 6.30% quantile since 2012.
The price of exclusive varieties of Chinese patent medicine has decreased slightly. It is suggested to pay attention to innovative traditional Chinese medicine and brand traditional Chinese medicine. On April 8, Guangdong Pharmaceutical Trading Center publicized the proposed winning / alternative results of centralized procurement of proprietary Chinese medicines such as Qingkailing of Guangdong alliance. The results showed that among the 576 products that participated in the quotation, 361 varieties were to be selected / selected, and the selection rate of products was 62.67%. Among the representative products to be selected / selected, the overall price decline is 54.35% based on the “maximum daily average cost / maximum effective bid price”. Among them, the average decline of non exclusive group A, non exclusive group B and exclusive group A was 49.95%, 84.12% and 17.12%, respectively.
The research and development of domestic covid-19 preventive and therapeutic drugs has made positive progress, and attention has been paid to mRNA vaccine, covid-19 oral drugs and industrial chain opportunities. Since April, the mRNA covid-19 vaccine developed by Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group and Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) has received clinical trial approval one after another. So far, six domestic mRNA covid-19 vaccines have been approved for clinical trials, including Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) / Aibo Biology (clinical phase III), rivanda Biology (clinical phase I), Si microorganism (clinical phase I) and Ruibo Biology (clinical phase I). Compared with the traditional vaccine, mRNA vaccine has the advantages of good protective effect and short production cycle. In this covid-19 epidemic, the advantages of mRNA vaccine have been fully demonstrated and is expected to usher in rapid development. It is suggested to pay attention to the progress of domestic mRNA covid-19 vaccine and the opportunities of relevant industrial chains. On April 6, Kaifa pharmaceutical announced the key data of phase III clinical trial of prochloramide in the treatment of non hospitalized covid-19 patients with mild and moderate diseases. Data show that prochloramide can effectively reduce hospitalization / mortality. In addition, the 3CL small molecule covid-19 oral drug of Xiansheng pharmaceutical has been approved for clinical trial in China, and the real biological azvudine and Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) vv116 have been in phase III clinical stage. The research and development of domestic covid-19 oral drugs has made positive progress. It is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 oral drugs and related industrial chain opportunities.
Risk warning: the price decline of consumables and drugs exceeds the expected risk; Failure risk of innovative drug research and development; Industry policy risk; The risk of intensified industry competition; Covid-19 epidemic recurrence risk, etc.
